97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.
JoeT
Forum Addict
Posts: 383
Joined: Mon May 17, 2010 11:34 am
Contact:

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:27 pm

Friday, Michael Mann was interviewed by WORT. For the full-hour he covers a lot of territory including droughts, floods, wild fires, the impact of a warming world on the jet stream, social cost of carbon, discount rates, ice sheets, stranded assets, fossil fuel company profits etc.. Skip the first 5 minutes or so:

http://archive.wortfm.org/mp3/wort_1808 ... apafri.mp3

Maybe it's just me, but in an hour-long interview why is it that no one asks Mann to dig a little deeper (other than the first meandering question) how climate change is impacting the midwest region and the Great Lakes with regard to the jet stream and future trends as to whether this region will be dryer or wetter? Especially since flooding was the ostensible reason for having him on the show to begin with.

Cadfael
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 3727
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:46 am

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Cadfael » Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:58 am

This guy gave us another temp anomaly video a while back.
Antti Lipponen of the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

gozer
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 5876
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2002 1:35 pm
Location: everywhere
Contact:

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby gozer » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:53 pm

remember all that smoke that came this way earlier in the month? that provided more condensation nuclei, so therefore more rain, just like 1993 after mt pinatubo blew up a while before . . . so there is the global warming connexion, and since thunderstorms can often locally increase the fuels situation especially for forest fires, it's one of those circle of life kinds of things . . . except, with pollution . . .

i did notice, however, that especially on sunday and monday of this week, and on the 16th, the rainfall totals were in spite of the thunderstorms moving at 90-180 km/h, with the extreme for rainfall rate being 375 mm or 15 inches per hour, which probably means there is a new normal for atmospheric physicists to work with* -- it is extraordinary or unheard of for a monsoon thunderstorm or circular storm to do that, with 5 inches per hour being more common, in the mid latitudes more than 1000 km from the ocean it verges on the paranormal . . .

---
* i direct u folks to the 24-hour maximum possible rainfall map in the c burt extreme weather book listed earlier in this thread and/or in the books section . . . for southern wisconsin it is about 24 inches (600 mm) -- after 2008 and this year, things may or may not be different -- it surely seems like one of these days the upper middle west and prairie provinces of canada not to mention the border south are in for a nasty surprise like a 50-inch cloudburst, hail the size of bowling balls, an f-7 tornado† 30 km across and other excitement from thunderstorms with 30 000 m/100 000 ft tops . . . i believe that during the awful 1995 hear wave that wisconsin and specifically the appleton area set not only the western hemisphere dew point record (90°f) but related to that precipitable water and convectively available potential energy, something like 12 500 j/kg. . .
† that's right -- the original scale at least goes all the way up to 12 -- the original idea being to divide the area betwixt the beaufort scale and mach numbers into 12 pieces . . .

gozer
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 5876
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2002 1:35 pm
Location: everywhere
Contact:

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby gozer » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:41 am

well, here is another off-the-wall thing that may be coming with climate change:

as a lot of folks may have already heard, many snakes, nearly all monitor lizards, all species of all four types of crocodilian, tuataras (sphenodon spp gray 1831) quite a few species of turtles, at least some smaller lizards, and some birds, which are, after all, the last of the dinosaurs and crocodilians are more closely related to birds than they are to lizards after all, lay eggs and take measures of varying sophistication to see that they are incubated.

the determination of the physical gender of the hatchlings is related to the incubation temperature, it looks like the average temperature over various segments of the incubation period . . . higher temperatures lead to more males, lower to more females . . . there are lizards which can change sex and/or gender as an expedient to assure the species survives, but not all . . . so male and female reptiles and birds are needed to assure that there are more in the future. the worry expressed in what i listened to about this is that with tuataras, the endangered living fossil reptile from new zealand much older than the dinosaurs, can very easily get entire broods of one or the other, then bob's your uncle, that's the end of egg production and/or fertilisation and the species . . .

Cadfael
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 3727
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:46 am

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Cadfael » Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:02 pm

Image

Paleo2
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 744
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:45 am

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Paleo2 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:07 pm

Cadfael wrote:Image


These zones are part of the reason why people who grow trees commercially are in a real bind.

Planting trees, for example orchards or trees for timber or paper, requires a certain stability in the climate over a period of decades. This map shows that some areas of the state changed 2 zones in 22 years, and a large swath of the state changed by one zone.

Add to this:

1. Temperature increase is accelerating.

2. Rainfall changes. (To answer some of what JoeT brought up earlier, the NOAA has been predicting an increase in rainfall in most parts of Wisconsin for many years, but when climate change speeds up, we can't be certain what effects that will have.)


tl:dr -- It is really hard to plant a tree for commercial purposes when the mature tree will be in a completely different climate from the sapling.

Cadfael
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 3727
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:46 am

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Cadfael » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:55 pm

To me the most interesting thing is that we lost one zone. It's a pretty safe bet that we'll lose another one around 2025 or so.

gargantua
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 11179
Joined: Sat Apr 13, 2002 1:30 pm
Location: Madison

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby gargantua » Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:05 pm

I'd like to see a map from 1960, since I'm old enough to remember those times. I'm quite sure we've lost an additional zone since then.

Paleo2
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 744
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:45 am

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Paleo2 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:28 pm

gozer wrote:remember all that smoke that came this way earlier in the month? that provided more condensation nuclei, so therefore more rain, just like 1993 after mt pinatubo blew up a while before . . . so there is the global warming connexion, and since thunderstorms can often locally increase the fuels situation especially for forest fires, it's one of those circle of life kinds of things . . . except, with pollution . . .

i did notice, however, that especially on sunday and monday of this week, and on the 16th, the rainfall totals were in spite of the thunderstorms moving at 90-180 km/h, with the extreme for rainfall rate being 375 mm or 15 inches per hour, which probably means there is a new normal for atmospheric physicists to work with* -- it is extraordinary or unheard of for a monsoon thunderstorm or circular storm to do that, with 5 inches per hour being more common, in the mid latitudes more than 1000 km from the ocean it verges on the paranormal . . .

---
* i direct u folks to the 24-hour maximum possible rainfall map in the c burt extreme weather book listed earlier in this thread and/or in the books section . . . for southern wisconsin it is about 24 inches (600 mm) -- after 2008 and this year, things may or may not be different -- it surely seems like one of these days the upper middle west and prairie provinces of canada not to mention the border south are in for a nasty surprise like a 50-inch cloudburst, hail the size of bowling balls, an f-7 tornado† 30 km across and other excitement from thunderstorms with 30 000 m/100 000 ft tops . . . i believe that during the awful 1995 hear wave that wisconsin and specifically the appleton area set not only the western hemisphere dew point record (90°f) but related to that precipitable water and convectively available potential energy, something like 12 500 j/kg. . .
† that's right -- the original scale at least goes all the way up to 12 -- the original idea being to divide the area betwixt the beaufort scale and mach numbers into 12 pieces . . .


There is a serious problem -- a number of species, especially birds, have been able to temporarily adapt to changes in climate by moving. For example, the western part of the US is getting hotter and drier, so some species can just move north and east. Until they can't. Other species move higher up a mountain. Until they can't.

Some species are adapted to very specific climates, and if, say, a marsh dries up, they are out of luck.

To tie in with my other post, most trees cannot walk, let alone fly.

gozer
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 5876
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2002 1:35 pm
Location: everywhere
Contact:

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby gozer » Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:52 pm

if there is any good at all in this locally, it would probably be wisconsin moving up the list in cotton production -- right now i think the number 19 producer state with an average of 1000 bales a year (a tiny amount; i have seen fields of it in far south walworth and rock counties on occasion over the years -- it appears to require irrigation at least as a fall-back and crop rotation with things like legumes, tomatoes, soya beans, sunflowers, potatoes, alfalfa, maize, or whatever . . . of course, a little extra cotton and some more vegetables won't make up for flooding and the trees trouble . . .

Madsci
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 1846
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 6:47 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Madsci » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:11 pm

20 years ago I planted a variety of trees and shrubs on our land to see which ones would grow. This was done knowing that our climate was changing and our landscape has different soil types. It was an little experiment to test my scientific knowledge. All the trees and shrubs were native to the state and came from a Wisconsin nursery. I chose plants that could tolerate drought since that was the history of this area. The bare root plants were watered, fenced, and weeded for their first few years, plus were given a natural mulch/fertilizer if they survived past their third year.
The biggest die-off was the first year, I think because the trees were planted in areas that will only support grasslands. All of the rest survived even the drought of 2012.
So now we are in a period of plenty of rainfall. What do I plant for the next 20 years.

Henry Vilas
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 27942
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2002 8:57 pm
Location: Name sez it all
Contact:

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Henry Vilas » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:38 pm

Madsci wrote:The biggest die-off was the first year, I think because the trees were planted in areas that will only support grasslands. All of the rest survived even the drought of 2012.

So now we are in a period of plenty of rainfall. What do I plant for the next 20 years.

Hi sis. Would winter tolerate bamboo, a grass species, survive on a sunny slope? If so you could raise pandas along with your goats and chicken.

pjbogart
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 7661
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:57 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby pjbogart » Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:04 pm

Paleo2 wrote: 2. Rainfall changes. (To answer some of what JoeT brought up earlier, the NOAA has been predicting an increase in rainfall in most parts of Wisconsin for many years, but when climate change speeds up, we can't be certain what effects that will have.)


This is a point that SHOULD be alarming but is used by opponents of climate change science (yeah, that's as ridiculous as it sounds). But you can't be SURE? No, climate is really complicated. It borders on utter chaos because tiny variations in a model, much like predicting the weather, can have dramatic effects on the overall model.

So you can't be SURE??? No, we actually CAN'T be sure, but that's part of the problem. Ocean temperatures could affect weather patterns across the entire globe! In Wisconsin, we're used to getting most of our weather from Minnesota, but changes in jet streams could cause patterns to come from the north (colder) or the south (warmer) or stay the same with a slight warming.

So you can't be SURE??? No! That's the entire point, ya fuckin' moron! We CAN'T BE SURE! The earth is warming, but how that affects your zip code depends on literally millions of factors. It could get warmer, colder, wetter, dryer. We know the overall impact on the earth, but it's impossible to predict how this will affect local weather.

So you can't be SURE???

Fuck it. Nevermind...

Paleo2
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 744
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:45 am

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Paleo2 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:19 pm

pjbogart wrote:
Paleo2 wrote: 2. Rainfall changes. (To answer some of what JoeT brought up earlier, the NOAA has been predicting an increase in rainfall in most parts of Wisconsin for many years, but when climate change speeds up, we can't be certain what effects that will have.)


This is a point that SHOULD be alarming but is used by opponents of climate change science (yeah, that's as ridiculous as it sounds). But you can't be SURE? No, climate is really complicated. It borders on utter chaos because tiny variations in a model, much like predicting the weather, can have dramatic effects on the overall model.

So you can't be SURE??? No, we actually CAN'T be sure, but that's part of the problem. Ocean temperatures could affect weather patterns across the entire globe! In Wisconsin, we're used to getting most of our weather from Minnesota, but changes in jet streams could cause patterns to come from the north (colder) or the south (warmer) or stay the same with a slight warming.

So you can't be SURE??? No! That's the entire point, ya fuckin' moron! We CAN'T BE SURE! The earth is warming, but how that affects your zip code depends on literally millions of factors. It could get warmer, colder, wetter, dryer. We know the overall impact on the earth, but it's impossible to predict how this will affect local weather.

So you can't be SURE???

Fuck it. Nevermind...


but but but THE MODELS! What about the MODELS! I heard on Fox News that the MODELS weren't any good, so that means the climate really isn't warming. Or else it is, and it's all natural. Or else it isn't natural, and it will be good for us. Or else we're completely fucked, so it's too late to do anything about it so why not drill, baby, DRILL!

Madsci
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 1846
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 6:47 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Madsci » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:11 pm

Henry Vilas wrote:
Madsci wrote:The biggest die-off was the first year, I think because the trees were planted in areas that will only support grasslands. All of the rest survived even the drought of 2012.

So now we are in a period of plenty of rainfall. What do I plant for the next 20 years.

Hi sis. Would winter tolerate bamboo, a grass species, survive on a sunny slope? If so you could raise pandas along with your goats and chicken.

Pandas would probably scare the goats and chickens and especially the cat. Plus, I wouldn't want to eat the big raccoon.
We got 5 more inches of rain over the last two days with more on the way.


Return to “National Politics & Government”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests