97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

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JoeT
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:50 pm

Rick Santorum, what a piece of work. Here's a guy who is co-chair of a biofuels lobbying group and has a financial interest in spreading disinformation. For those who may have missed it, see Sunday's NYT Palm Oil Was Supposed to Help Save the Planet. Instead It Unleashed a Catastrophe.

Chuck Todd did something similar to Anderson Cooper on Meet the Press. He had on Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute who talked nonsense about the last 2 years of historic cooling. What was interesting is that Shepherd Smith at Fox felt no need to play this fake game of listening to "both sides" when it comes to discussing basic science. (There is of course an interesting debate to be had on policy.)

(BTW, I wouldn't have thought Katherine Hayhoe was old enough to be called for a hearing when Gingrich was in the House)

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:42 am

JoeT wrote:(BTW, I wouldn't have thought Katherine Hayhoe was old enough to be called for a hearing when Gingrich was in the House)

Okay, I got a bunch of the details wrong. It was 2012, not the 1990's. And it wasn't hyper-partisan House Speaker Gingrich, it was disgraced former-Speaker Gingrich. And it wasn't a hearing, it was a chapter in his book.

I also had completely forgotten that this was in the context of Gingrich pretending to run for President, by writing a book about the environment. As if Republicans actually cared about the environment. Or books.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Cadfael » Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:49 pm

Image

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:59 am

JoeT wrote:Rick Santorum, what a piece of work. Here's a guy who is co-chair of a biofuels lobbying group and has a financial interest in spreading disinformation. For those who may have missed it, see Sunday's NYT Palm Oil Was Supposed to Help Save the Planet. Instead It Unleashed a Catastrophe.

Santorum is one of four prominent climate deniers who have been called out by CNN for spreading lies.

Good for you, CNN!

and the punchline:
Two of the four clips CNN is urging people to ignore — the comments from Santorum, who is a paid CNN commentator, and DeLay — are from interviews on CNN. The network has come under fire in recent weeks for giving a platform to climate change deniers instead of scientists.


That's your liberal media right there.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby IU2Bmanoletters » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:03 pm

Germany has just positioned itself as one of the leading environmentally sustainable nations of the 21st Century. But Donald Trump's USA is making news too - we're one of the leaders... of the EIGHTEENTH Century.
"Germany Closes Its Last Black Coal Mine:"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/busi ... -mine.html

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:40 pm

A few months ago there was a lot of chatter that in 2017 the US had the highest reduction in CO2 emission in the world and that this showed that free enterprise --- and not government regulation --- was all that was needed. At the same time, some climate scientists have been saying that even under Trump, CO2 emissions in the US will continue to fall due to the switch from coal to natural gas. From my perspective, here’s the long and the short of it: CO2 emission for the US dropped only slightly in 2017 and then shot up roughly 3% in 2018. And --- based on where we are going now --- the only way we are going to hit the Paris climate target for the US is if there is another recession. The details are given below.

Here’s the Environmental Protection Agency on US CO2 emissions for 2017:
Thanks to President Trump’s regulatory reform agenda, the economy is booming, energy production is surging, and we are reducing greenhouse gas emissions from major industrial sources,” said EPA Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “These achievements flow largely from technological breakthroughs in the private sector, not the heavy hand of government. The Trump Administration has proven that federal regulations are not necessary to drive CO2 reductions. While many around the world are talking about reducing greenhouse gases, the U.S. continues to deliver, and today’s report is further evidence of our action-oriented approach.


Back in July, BP came out with a study that said the US had the largest decline in CO2 emissions in the world for 2017. This particular outcome began making the rounds of institutions like the American Enterprise Institute and blogs like WUWT. Here’s the main chart showing WE’RE NUMBER ONE!:
Image

And finally I want to get to a post by one of my favorite climate scientists/journalists, Zeke Hausfather, who wrote up a story for Climate Brief, Analysis: Why US Carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005. Here’s a brief summary of what Zeke thinks are the reasons for the drop in carbon emission:
Switching from coal to gas: 33%
Wind: 19%
Reduced electricity use: 18%
Improvements in Transportation: 15%
Lower fuel consumption in homes and buildings: 12%
Solar: 3%

Zeke thinks that despite what the Trump administration does, it’s likely that emissions in the US will continue to drop:
Declines in US CO2 have persisted despite an economic recovery from the financial crisis. While the pace of reductions may slow, many of these factors will continue to push down emissions, notwithstanding the inclinations of the current administration.

Is Zeke's statement true? What about EPA head Wheeler's? I had a look at the data.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:43 pm

Two things I did differently than other analyses I’ve seen is that I used monthly data rather than annual and I ran change point analysis on the data to look for changes in the trends. Here’s what the data looks like:
Image

First of all, notice that there are large spikes in the data. These occur around December/January when there are large demands for heating fuel. There are smaller secondary peaks in August. Spring and Fall usually show lower CO2 emissions. What you can see from this is that CO2 emissions are strongly dependent on the weather.

The vertical green lines are where there are breaks in the trend. You can see a steady increase in CO2 emission up to 2007 and then a huge drop. The drop starts in December, 2007 and lasts until November, 2009. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Great Recession lasted from December, 2007 to June, 2009 – which corresponds almost exactly to the sharp drop in CO2.

After 2010, CO2 emissions pretty much bounce around. They go up and down without a clear trend so that emissions now aren’t much different than they were at the end of the Great Recession. My intention was to see if one could extrapolate the results to see if there is any chance we could hit the Paris target of 26 – 28% drop in emissions from 2005 by 2025. However, there is no good reason to extrapolate if there is no clear trend. Mostly it looks like the drop in CO2 has plateaued out and may even be on the way up.

Instead of extrapolating, I simply made 2 assumptions just to see how they would play out. One is what I call ‘optimistic’ because it simply assumes a linear decrease in CO2 emission starting in 2010 until now. It’s optimistic because it doesn’t call for the economy to fail. And it's optimistic because there is no good reason to assume a linear decrease, when it appears right now that emissions will hold steady or even go up. The graph below --- which plots Yearly CO2 emissions --- shows that with this optimistic assumption, we won’t reach the Paris climate target. Note that for 2018, not all the data has come in yet, but the US Energy Information Agency has stated in a press release earlier this month they expect CO2 emissions for 2018 to be up 3% compared to 2017. That expectation is the red asterisk in the plot below.
Image
The other assumption I made is that emissions would drop as they did during the Great Recession. Under this scenario we reach the Paris target by the end of Trump’s term --- but the economy collapses. Another victory for free-market capitalism, I guess.

Oh yeah, about that graph that's been making the rounds showing the US being the leader in reducing CO2 emissions in 2017. Here's what the graph looks like for 2018:
Image
I didn't bother redoing the calculations for countries other than the US.

All-in-all, I think there are a number of take-aways from this rather crude analysis. The first is that Trump had nothing to do with the reduction in CO2 emission in 2017 and probably not much to do with the huge increase for 2018 either. In fact, it seems probable that Obama had little to do with the drop in CO2 during his term either. Other factors like the recession, the weather, gas prices and fuel costs are more important. The other take-away is that without something like Obama’s Clean Power Plan or the proposal agreed to with automakers to double fuel efficiency with new CAFÉ standards, there is little reason to expect CO2 emissions to drop much further.

Unfortunately, because of extensive lobbying by the oil industry, the Trump administration intends to roll back fuel efficiency standards. With the price of gas so low, I would not be surprised if CO2 emissions keep going up for 2019. Unless, of course, there is another recession.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:55 pm

In my two posts above, I showed that there were no trend lines indicating that CO2 emission for the US would just keep decreasing. Instead, the data showed that emissions had either leveled out or had already turned around and started going back up. This is in sharp contrast to the misinformation being distributed by EPA head Andrew Wheeler and the American Enterprise Institute. Today's NYTimes confirms what I had just written. And the problem is even worse than I thought.

I want to highlight one point in particular. Coal plants are still shutting down, contrary to Trump's stated goal of expanding coal in the US, BUT renewables are not keeping pace with the demand for energy.

U.S. Carbon Emissions Surged in 2018 Even as Coal Plants Closed
WASHINGTON — America’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by 3.4 percent in 2018, the biggest increase in eight years, according to a preliminary estimate published Tuesday.

Strikingly, the sharp uptick in emissions occurred even as a near-record number of coal plants around the United States retired last year, illustrating how difficult it could be for the country to make further progress on climate change in the years to come, particularly as the Trump administration pushes to roll back federal regulations that limit greenhouse gas emissions.

The estimate, by the research firm Rhodium Group, pointed to a stark reversal. Fossil fuel emissions in the United States have fallen significantly since 2005 and declined each of the previous three years, in part because of a boom in cheap natural gas and renewable energy, which have been rapidly displacing dirtier coal-fired power.

Here's my revision to the American Enterprise chart using the new data
Image

This comes on the heels of a report put out by one possible Democratic candidate for president which claims that if the US just continued doing what it's doing, CO2 emissions would be 17% lower by 2025, or 2/3 of the way to the Paris climate goal. This, of course, is nonsense.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Henry Vilas » Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:29 am

More bad news.

2018 was hottest year ever recorded for planet's oceans

The year 2018 passed the previous record set just the year before, in 2017; the top five years of ocean heat have come in the last five years. Last year continues a startling trend of global ocean warming that is a direct result of humans' warming of the planet, the authors say.

The same group of scientists published a study last week showing that oceans are warming faster than scientists thought, by absorbing more heat than was previously known. That will result in a six-fold increase in ocean warming by 2081-2100, compared to the past 60 years.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Paleo2 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:38 am

Henry Vilas wrote:More bad news.

2018 was hottest year ever recorded for planet's oceans

The year 2018 passed the previous record set just the year before, in 2017; the top five years of ocean heat have come in the last five years. Last year continues a startling trend of global ocean warming that is a direct result of humans' warming of the planet, the authors say.

The same group of scientists published a study last week showing that oceans are warming faster than scientists thought, by absorbing more heat than was previously known. That will result in a six-fold increase in ocean warming by 2081-2100, compared to the past 60 years.


This will have an enormous effect on El Niños in the future. More of them and much stronger. And “the future” is not very far away. Years at most, possibly months.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby gargantua » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:07 pm

Paleo2 wrote:
Henry Vilas wrote:More bad news.

2018 was hottest year ever recorded for planet's oceans

The year 2018 passed the previous record set just the year before, in 2017; the top five years of ocean heat have come in the last five years. Last year continues a startling trend of global ocean warming that is a direct result of humans' warming of the planet, the authors say.

The same group of scientists published a study last week showing that oceans are warming faster than scientists thought, by absorbing more heat than was previously known. That will result in a six-fold increase in ocean warming by 2081-2100, compared to the past 60 years.


This will have an enormous effect on El Niños in the future. More of them and much stronger. And “the future” is not very far away. Years at most, possibly months.

Hard to tell exactly what affect this will have on us. There is also a body of warm water in the northern Pacific, referred to as a "blob". In recent winters ( not so much this one as yet) it has kept Alaska warm and sent very cold air to....the Midwest.
I agree that some very bad things will be happening, but some of them may not be at all what we might expect.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Paleo2 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:45 pm

gargantua wrote:
Paleo2 wrote:


This will have an enormous effect on El Niños in the future. More of them and much stronger. And “the future” is not very far away. Years at most, possibly months.

Hard to tell exactly what affect this will have on us. There is also a body of warm water in the northern Pacific, referred to as a "blob". In recent winters ( not so much this one as yet) it has kept Alaska warm and sent very cold air to....the Midwest.
I agree that some very bad things will be happening, but some of them may not be at all what we might expect.


True.

I remember in the late 1990s, checking out what the NOAA was predicting for the Central Valley in California. At the time, the best models showed greatly increased rain and temperatures, making it great for crops but a living hell for humans.

Instead they got the Blob, which often blocks the rivers of rain needed for California. Meaning they went into an epic drought which was exacerbated by global warming.

The denialists claim any problem with any model disproves global warming. Instead, all it means is we are in uncharted territory and things will often change in completely unexpected ways. Which makes dealing with global warming worse.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Madsci » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm

Warm water in the Pacific mixing with the masses of plastic - future doesn't look good for marine life.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby gargantua » Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:10 pm

The accelerated warming can't be good for coral reefs either.
I'm afraid that we are witness to the beginning of the death of the oceans.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Beaver » Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:26 am

Climate change anxiety and depression meetup
https://www.meetup.com/Climate-change-a ... on-meetup/

"This is a group for people with anxiety and/or depression related to climate change. I find it hard to find people who relate to or understand how I'm feeling. I think it will be helpful to have others to talk to. Hopefully we can find ways to cope together."


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