Igor wrote:Her chances are almost entirely based on who runs against her. The Republican candidate would probably have to be as far to the right as Baldwin is to the left - not sure that can happen, but Mark Neumann would be the closest, probably. She will have the advantage of being on a ticket with a Democratic president that is good a turning out Democratic voters, which will improve her chances some.
I agree in the sense that she could win if she was running against some kind of religious nut, but unless it was a religious nut with a dresser drawer full of anthrax, even then it would be close.
Essentially it would be like if Kloppenburg ran during an election year, not an off year, and she lost even with an enthusiasm gap that was disproportionately vamped in her favor in an election that normally sees only 20% of the electorate. Turnout in Wisconsin in 2012 should be almost as high as it was in 2008 because it is as it was in 2010 the central battleground.
I do think if anything it is Baldwin's time to run. She gets a little love from me because she stuck to her girl in the 2008 primary but that wouldn't get my vote in 2012. If the president doesnt have support from independents, she wouldn't have support form independents; if the president loses the state, she would lose the state. Someone like Russ Feingold however, could win a senate seat even if Obama lost the state.