Senator Baldwin?

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.
Bludgeon
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby Bludgeon » Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:57 pm

Igor wrote:Her chances are almost entirely based on who runs against her. The Republican candidate would probably have to be as far to the right as Baldwin is to the left - not sure that can happen, but Mark Neumann would be the closest, probably. She will have the advantage of being on a ticket with a Democratic president that is good a turning out Democratic voters, which will improve her chances some.


I agree in the sense that she could win if she was running against some kind of religious nut, but unless it was a religious nut with a dresser drawer full of anthrax, even then it would be close.

Essentially it would be like if Kloppenburg ran during an election year, not an off year, and she lost even with an enthusiasm gap that was disproportionately vamped in her favor in an election that normally sees only 20% of the electorate. Turnout in Wisconsin in 2012 should be almost as high as it was in 2008 because it is as it was in 2010 the central battleground.

I do think if anything it is Baldwin's time to run. She gets a little love from me because she stuck to her girl in the 2008 primary but that wouldn't get my vote in 2012. If the president doesnt have support from independents, she wouldn't have support form independents; if the president loses the state, she would lose the state. Someone like Russ Feingold however, could win a senate seat even if Obama lost the state.

gargantua
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby gargantua » Tue Dec 25, 2018 12:01 pm

Huckleby wrote:Tammy Baldwin has zero chance to be elected senator.

I have utmost respect for her, but lets keep it real.

It's sometimes fun to see how being wrong can last forever.

Paleo2
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby Paleo2 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 12:33 pm

gargantua wrote:
Huckleby wrote:Tammy Baldwin has zero chance to be elected senator.

I have utmost respect for her, but lets keep it real.

It's sometimes fun to see how being wrong can last forever.


We all make mistakes.

Honestly, not many people in 2011 knew what a great campaigner Baldwin is. She and her staff did an expert job in 2012 and 2018 of painting her GOP opponents as having completely sold out to special interests. Of course Thompson having been a high paid lobbyist and running against the main woman of ALEC made it easier.

gargantua
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby gargantua » Tue Dec 25, 2018 12:53 pm

Well, yes and no. Thompson was one of the most popular Governors in state history. He was a heavy favorite at the beginning of the campaign. It's amazing that Tammy took him down. To me, the funny thing about these prognostications was that they were giving her no chance against, well, anyone. Even I, a Democrat, liked Tommy Thompson.

Bwis53
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby Bwis53 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:23 pm

Huckleby was a contrarian.

gargantua
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby gargantua » Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:50 pm

Bwis53 wrote:Huckleby was a contrarian.

Usually, but he wasn't the only one in that thread that claimed Baldwin had no chance.

Donald
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby Donald » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:17 pm

Interesting that I didn't comment back in 2011, and it shows my good judgement and expertise in these matters. I tend not to put my foot in my mouth about the likelihood of anyone winning or losing a race a year or more out from the date of the election. Whether it's Baldwin or Trump or whoever, making bold statements about someone's viability in a campaign that is a year or more from ending is stupid. Now if I ran, yeah, you could say, "Stick a knife in him, he's done." Otherwise it's best to STFU and await the campaign.

Not many thought Trump had a chance to win the Presidency when he descended the escalator, but I knew he was tapping into a latent base of dumb and angry voters. I saw too much of these people when I worked in political issues in rural areas in the West.

People want to say Baldwin's appeal is in her ability to campaign. Yeah, but it's also that she leads on some pretty important issues.

Henry Vilas
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby Henry Vilas » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:31 pm

Donald wrote:Whether it's Baldwin or Trump or whoever, making bold statements about someone's viability in a campaign that is a year or more from ending is stupid.

Case in point is this post from last year.
Henry Vilas wrote:I was in Germany during the presidential conventions last summer. The Germans told me Trump reminded them of their leader of the Third Reich. I tried to assure them that Trump had no chance of being elected.

Sadly, I was very wrong.

gargantua
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Re: Senator Baldwin?

Postby gargantua » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:36 pm

I want to be fair, so I have to admit that I didn't think Tammy had a chance back then either. I just didn't post about it for some reason. I have speculated in other races though. I was pretty downbeat about Evers' chances, for one thing. I may not have said "Evers has no chance ". But I might have, since I felt that way at times.


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