Sunday snow storm

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Beaver
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Sunday snow storm

Postby Beaver » Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:25 am

Local forecasts say 2 to 6" here. Accuweather says 6 to 12" with near blizzard conditions, dangerous travel and power outages here. Who will be right?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... y/70006696

"Near-blizzard conditions may develop from near the Topeka, Kansas, and Omaha, Nebraska, areas to Des Moines, Iowa, Rockford, Illinois, and Madison, Wisconsin, during Sunday. These conditions may occur even though the storm may begin as rain or a rain and snow mix. Temperatures will dip as the storm unfolds. Expect conditions to deteriorate across the I-35 and I-80 corridors in the region.

A general 3-6 inches of snow is forecast for a large swath of the central Plains and Upper Midwest with a band of 6-12 inches accumulation within and locally higher amounts. The exact track of the storm will determine the northern and The same wintry conditions may unfold in Milwaukee and perhaps much of the Chicago area from Sunday night to Monday.

"The combination of extra moisture from Lake Michigan, colder air and strong winds may lead to whiteout conditions and a rapid accumulation of snow in Chicago during the second half of the storm," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis."

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chainsawcurtis
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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby chainsawcurtis » Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:36 am

NOAA isn't saying anything like this. Doesn't everybody get their info from them?

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby gargantua » Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:49 pm

chainsawcurtis wrote:NOAA isn't saying anything like this. Doesn't everybody get their info from them?

Channel 3 uses at least two different models, and they are showing different forecasts. One of them takes the main storm much further south, enough so that Madison wouldn't get any snow. All they know for sure right now is that someone is going to get a lot.

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby chainsawcurtis » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:56 pm

NOAA has changed it's mind. Now they're calling for 2-4" on Sunday with a weather advisory from 6 am to midnight. Still, not one might call a snowpocalypse

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby Beaver » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:59 pm

Accuweather has moved the heaviest snow South of here. False alarm?

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby gargantua » Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:23 pm

chainsawcurtis wrote:NOAA has changed it's mind. Now they're calling for 2-4" on Sunday with a weather advisory from 6 am to midnight. Still, not one might call a snowpocalypse

Since it's still November, while it's not terrible, it still sucks when you consider that the official start of winter is more than three weeks away.

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby Cadfael » Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:02 pm

You whippersnappers don't remember when it was thirty below zero and fourteen inches on the ground for the first day of gun season! And we walked to school in that!

gargantua
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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby gargantua » Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:01 pm

Cadfael wrote:You whippersnappers don't remember when it was thirty below zero and fourteen inches on the ground for the first day of gun season! And we walked to school in that!

You must be at least 70 then.
Although the 17.2 inches on December 3, 1990 was a real slice.

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby Beaver » Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:37 am

Accuweather still predicting near blizzard here. Others say worst will be SE of here.

https://www.channel3000.com/weather/for ... /155345399

"SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and colder with snow developing, possibly mixed with rain in the afternoon toward the Illinois state line; snow accumulations of one to four inches during the day, heaviest southeast of Madison (precipitation all snow at night with one to three inches of additional accumulation, heaviest southeast of Madison).
High: 33
Wind: N 10-20 MPH"

Beaver
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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby Beaver » Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:52 pm

Hard to predict this one.

https://www.channel3000.com/weather/win ... /887691608

GFS this morning:
Image

GFS this afternoon, which matches NAM:
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RPM:
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Madsci
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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby Madsci » Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:53 pm

What snow?

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby snoqueen » Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:06 pm

These west-to-east storms seem to give the meteorologists the most trouble. They're not coming AT us, they're sliding along sideways. If you watch the regional radar during the day (not just the local forecasts) you can see the storm approaching along a very shallow arc, and guess for yourself where it'll be when it moves through Wisconsin. Then you can see why this was a tricky one. I don't blame the weather forecasters for not calling this storm's path until very late.

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby gargantua » Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:27 pm

The one observation I can make is that winter storms tend to go further south during an El Nino winter. So if the forecast is a coin flip like this one was, it's not a huge surprise that it would come up south.

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Re: Sunday snow storm

Postby Madsci » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:58 pm

I was out of town Sunday morning and a bit worried about getting home before the storm. So I left early just in case. I think I saw a snowflake today. Other areas were not so lucky.


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