Floods

[Beaver]

Dozens of US cities on track to have their rainiest year ever
78 could see record numbers
https://www.channel3000.com/weather/doz ... /939885396

[gargantua]

Madison has already had its 2nd wettest year since records were kept. Based on the long range forecast for the rest of the year, we are very likely to end up 2nd.

[raw-tracks]

Four of the Top10 wettest months in Madison were in the 1880's. Three in the Top 4.

[gargantua]

I was looking at record lows for December. There have been none after 1994. On the other hand, there have been a number of record highs since 2000. You'd think that the climate was changing or something.

[raw-tracks]

The report from the Lake Levels Technical Workgroup has just been released. Turns out that lowering Mendota is a bad idea. It will actually cause higher levels downstream. You can download the report here:

https://lwrd.countyofdane.com/documents ... -Final.pdf

[gozer]

ice-jam flooding is coming to town -- primarily along the rock river for starters next week, if i remember correctly, the crawfish, fox, and wisconsin rivers like to get into the act in that order . . . i wonder if flamethrowers, dynamite, napalm, or the moab could make a difference . . . after all, the rock island arsenal is right at the confluence of the rock and mississippi rivers . . . maybe a pubic demonstration of a thermobaric munition?

[gozer]

I was looking at record lows for December. There have been none after 1994. On the other hand, there have been a number of record highs since 2000. You'd think that the climate was changing or something.

does anyone know what the official date for the five lakes freezing over would be? in the first half of the month it looked as if at least two of them never would, then came the blast, much like 1999 . . .

[gargantua]

Well, Mendota and Monona officially froze over in December, but then they thawed for awhile. I don't know how that works in the record books....probably as two separate ice-overs?

[gozer]

i believe the current snowpack on most or all of the yahara watershed dates to sometime betwixt 28. november and 25. december 2018 with a relatively small bit of melting from last thursday, so it has anywhere from 100 to 200 mm/4 to 8 inches of moisture in it -- if it all lets go at once on top of frozen ground with last year's 50 per cent surplus frozen into it, a good-sized mess could probably result . . .

[gargantua]

i believe the current snowpack on most or all of the yahara watershed dates to sometime betwixt 28. november and 25. december 2018 with a relatively small bit of melting from last thursday, so it has anywhere from 100 to 200 mm/4 to 8 inches of moisture in it -- if it all lets go at once on top of frozen ground with last year's 50 per cent surplus frozen into it, a good-sized mess could probably result . . .

That's a good point, and the closer we get to Spring, the likelier the sort of significant warmup that can cause it will be.