If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

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pjbogart
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If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby pjbogart » Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:14 pm

Registered Voters in the City of Madison had a turnout of almost 93%. Republicans have probably been lulled into complacency believing that mail-in absentee voting would benefit them due to their aging voter base, but voting by mail effectively expands election day from November X to "whenever the fuck you want." As we move forward, expect to see higher turnout, not necessarily on election day, but in the weeks prior.

But the GOP doesn't WANT more voters... they want less. Madison essentially tilted the Governor's race and all of the other State-wide races by showing up in almost obscene numbers. To be fair, 93% of registered voters didn't actually vote. That would be a virtual miracle. But turnout numbers are based upon registered voters BEFORE the election, so it's possible to go OVER 100% depending on new voters who register on election day.

Expect Republicans to attack same day registration in the coming weeks, or at least before 2020. As technology evolves, they'll probably decide that this "let everyone vote" schtick has gone too far.

And congratulations, Madison. My mother sent me a text today thanking the entire city of Madison for getting rid of Walker.

We own that. And it's worth owning.

mrak
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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby mrak » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:41 am

I think we can share some of that credit.
Here's an under-reported story of the election in Wisconsin:


pjbogart
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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby pjbogart » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:59 am

mrak wrote:I think we can share some of that credit.
Here's an under-reported story of the election in Wisconsin:



Absolutely. I was worried when I got up on Tuesday morning that the dreary, misty weather would depress voting in Milwaukee, but they really showed up. But again, a large number of people in Milwaukee voted absentee so they didn't NEED to deal with the gloomy weather.

I'd also like to believe that 2016 will be burned in Democrats' memories for a long time. I know numerous people who didn't bother to vote just because it seemed like the votes were already counted before election day. Clinton already won, right?

Never forget that day. I don't care how confident you are that the Democrat is going to win in 2020. Vote anyway.

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby Beaver » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:34 pm

I still haven't seen the blue and red maps showing how counties voted.

Henry Vilas
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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby Henry Vilas » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:51 pm

I know I've seen one, but can't remember where. Maybe channel3000.com.

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby jonnygothispen » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:02 pm

WaPo...

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jonnygothispen
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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby jonnygothispen » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:04 pm

Madison.com...

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby Beaver » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:27 pm

Interesting thanks. WaPo says Evers won Green Bay and neighbor counties, Madison.com says Walker won those. I suspect latter is true.

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby gargantua » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:22 pm

Beaver wrote:Interesting thanks. WaPo says Evers won Green Bay and neighbor counties, Madison.com says Walker won those. I suspect latter is true.

You're right. I think the disconnect is that Walker underperformed in those counties compared to 2014. It's not that he lost, but he didn't win by as much.

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby pjbogart » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:37 pm

Vicki McKenna was complaining that Republicans let this one go. Waukesha still voted for Walker but didn't deliver the numbers that were expected. That doesn't surprise me a lot because suburbanites might have liked Walker's property tax freeze but probably weren't thrilled about infrastructure decay or school funding. Suburbanites, even if they delivered States like Michigan and Pennsylvania to Trump, probably aren't particularly loyal to him. They rolled the dice and got snake-eyes.

If Trump continues to alienate the Milwaukee suburbs and the Fox Valley, 2020 could be a bloodbath for Republicans in Wisconsin (assuming he's on the ticket). Wisconsin only has three significant population centers (four if you separate Milwaukee from its suburbs) and Democrats won all three.

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby msnflyer » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:57 pm

I worked at my local polling place. While taking a turn as a greeter I ask an incoming couple if they'd voted in this location before (remodeling during the prior year changed the entry to the voting location.) The man said he'd never voted in his life so I sent him to the registration table. This couple was in their late 50s or early 60s. I wondered what motivated them to start voting in this election.

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby jonnygothispen » Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:01 pm

Oops! The WaPo map posted above is of Tammy Baldwin's race. I couldn't get the WaPo governor's map to come up alone, but this one did...

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby dooley » Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:06 am

I've heard a few conservative commentators say that these races continue to show the urban/rural divide and Robin Vos said that Milwaukee and Madison elected Evers/Barnes. I think that narrative plays into their divide and conquer strategy but the maps for Baldwin and Evers show that they won Madison, Milwaukee but they also won SW Wisconsin, far northwest WI and Baldwin won Door Co and the Fox Valley while Evers narrowly lost those areas. This was not urban/rural divide and if we weren't so badly gerrymandered the assembly and senate would look different too. This was a repudiation.

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby snoqueen » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:07 am

Places with a university tend to go Democratic. Places with more citizens having an education beyond high school tend to go Democratic. Places with more minority voters do too. The rural remainder stays Republican. The map validates all those findings.

In this election, suburbs with a wealthier more educated population tended toward Democratic, especially among women voters. That's the one generalization Wisconsin still hasn't aligned with. We've got that clot of wealthy white suburb counties around Milwaukee that still voted Republican.

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Re: If This Isn't Scaring Republicans, It Should

Postby Cadfael » Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:12 pm

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Good luck to Bill Nelson and his recount. Twelve thousand five hundred and sixty two votes is a lot but it's only 0.15 percent of 8 million.


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