JDS

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narcoleptish
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Re: JDS

Postby narcoleptish » Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:25 pm

willystresident wrote:What I took from the City's housing report is that if we don't keep building at the current pace, rents will rise as a low vacancy rate gives all the power to the landlords, and that developers need to be more aggressive in their building to lower rents in any meaningful way.


The developers are the landlords and lowering rents is not on their list of reasons for building more. Most landlords want more units, ideally in taller building where the economies of scale make so much more sense, but the smart ones keep an eye on the future and the inevitable market changes that always happen. No one wants to be opening a brand new 300-unit building two months after the market has been declared "overbuilt". Remember the condos?

MPMay
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Re: JDS

Postby MPMay » Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:15 am

Endo Rockstar wrote:
snoqueen wrote:Is there any procedure for returning to a previously completed agenda item if the situation undergoes a significant, material change (like the company's market value goes through the floor)?


I really don't know what version of rules of order are used, but in theory you should be able to motion to suspend the rules of the council then one of the folks who initially voted "for" Exact Sciences could make a motion for reconsideration. Maybe?

Dan Motor


The Council's rules are set forth in chapter 2, MGO, and to the extent not covered there, they are governed by the latest edition of Robert's Rules of Order (that is the 11th edition right now -- what a sinecure for the family!). The sorts of motions referenced above are not contemplated. The closest thing would be a motion to rescind, which has its own problems.

I suspect (without knowing) that the opponents of the project are biding their time. This project still needs positive votes on a modification to the TID project plan, requested zoning changes, creating a redevelopment district, and keeping the funds for the project in the capital budget. If there is no longer the political will to proceed with this project, one or more of those votes will fail.

gargantua
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Re: JDS

Postby gargantua » Sat Oct 10, 2015 8:36 pm

Thanks again for the explanation of the process. I find this fascinating. An obvious (artificial deadline ) high pressure sales tactic is employed. A number of city leaders get caught up in it and expend political capital to keep it alive. Adversity occurs. Do they reevaluate their position or stick to their position despite new evidence? To quote the late Kurt Vonnegut - "Vietnam ".

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Re: JDS

Postby snoqueen » Sat Oct 10, 2015 8:46 pm

It makes sense then to let some time pass as the process continues. For the market to settle on a new valuation for EXAS stock, for other adjustments or even personnel changes to occur all take some time. Rushing that process could be as imprudent as the way the company and city officials tried to rush a commitment to build the JDS project as originally proposed. I don't know what would be an appropriate new timeline, but several weeks could reveal a lot more about where this thing is going.

gargantua
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Re: JDS

Postby gargantua » Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:11 pm

That's why this is being rushed through. A deliberative process is not in the interest of the proposers. We must decide. Now. Because they said so.

How could any reasonable person disagree, I said without a trace of sarcasm. This is the first and only time in my life that I thought Paul Soglin was just being stupid.

bdog
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Re: JDS

Postby bdog » Sun Oct 11, 2015 6:16 am

It is possible Soglin et al are not stupid at all.

I think we need to consider the possibility that they have been paid off.

Westsidegal
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Re: JDS

Postby Westsidegal » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:30 am

bdog wrote:It is possible Soglin et al are not stupid at all.

I think we need to consider the possibility that they have been paid off.


Campaign contributions? It is already known that the CEO is politically connected. There is no doubt that played a role in this. That is why Bob Dunn brought him into the project. Does any one dispute that? Seriously?

rabble
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Re: JDS

Postby rabble » Sun Oct 11, 2015 10:13 am

Westsidegal wrote:
bdog wrote:It is possible Soglin et al are not stupid at all.

I think we need to consider the possibility that they have been paid off.


Campaign contributions? It is already known that the CEO is politically connected. There is no doubt that played a role in this. That is why Bob Dunn brought him into the project. Does any one dispute that? Seriously?

And this is going to continue through the rest of the process that Mr May describes? Or was it a one time payoff just to get through this step, and they'll wing it from here?

If indeed there will be votes on the TID, zoning, redevelopment, and the capital budget, the payoffs will have to flow pretty damn freely and be pretty damn good money. And they'll have to come up with some pretty good cover stories. Where's it all come from?

What's the going rate for a council vote these days? Does it depend on the subject?

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Re: JDS

Postby Stu Levitan » Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:07 am

So, are you suggesting the payoffs are via campaign contributions, or actual undisclosed illegal bribes? Because, you know, you COULD check the campaign finance reports, but that's not as easy as just making accusations.

BTW - the vote wasn't accelerated in order to beat the federal recommendations. If you've read the conference call that ExAs had with analysts -- and you DID read the report, right? -- you would see that Conroy was surprised by the recommendation; company fully expected to be included in recommended treatments. So there would have been no reason to try and get the vote in before the release by the feds.

bdog
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Re: JDS

Postby bdog » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:51 am

Stu Levitan wrote:So, are you suggesting the payoffs are via campaign contributions, or actual undisclosed illegal bribes? Because, you know, you COULD check the campaign finance reports, but that's not as easy as just making accusations.

Illegal bribes would be in the campaign finance reports? These new rules are TOUGH!

Yes, I am suggesting illegal bribes, particularly for Soglin. It's a better explanation than stupidity.

rabble
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Re: JDS

Postby rabble » Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:06 am

bdog wrote:Yes, I am suggesting illegal bribes, particularly for Soglin. It's a better explanation than stupidity.

If you would, could you explain how they're going to bribe their way through the next several sets of votes and then maybe a cost analysis of what sort of profits all those bribes are going to generate?

To me it looks like the prize isn't certain enough and won't be large enough to justify that many payoffs.

willystresident
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Re: JDS

Postby willystresident » Mon Oct 12, 2015 10:52 am

narcoleptish wrote:The developers are the landlords and lowering rents is not on their list of reasons for building more. Most landlords want more units, ideally in taller building where the economies of scale make so much more sense, but the smart ones keep an eye on the future and the inevitable market changes that always happen. No one wants to be opening a brand new 300-unit building two months after the market has been declared "overbuilt". Remember the condos?


Sure, no developer goes into business with the goal of adding supply to lower the median rent, but it happens in healthy markets with a healthy vacancy rate. Developers still make money, and lots of it by adding units to a healthy rental market, which is literally the worst case scenario, not some crash. And we're not living in anything close to a healthy rental market. Building more market rate housing--even luxury units--is in the interest of anybody who cares about affordable housing.

Moreover, developing apartments is nothing like developing condos. The terms of the financing is different, its easier to raise capital, and there are more ways to save the project for both the debt and equity sides of the project if the stuff hits the fan.

Anyways, its these 'smart ones' who sit on underused property in the Isthmus and intentionally drive up prices to their own benefit, even though they're already super rich. I'm looking at you, Mullins and Korbs.

If the city has underused land they are looking to develop, they should direct that land to developers that will build residential and help make the Madison apartment market healthy.

gargantua
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Re: JDS

Postby gargantua » Mon Oct 12, 2015 10:55 am

I really don't think Soglin was bribed and/or would act against what he feels are the best interests of the city. Nor do I believe that he is a stupid person. But even really bright people can rationalize their way into making a stupid decision. That's what I believe happened here. I hope I'm wrong about the decision, because I don't think it will change.

Pacific
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Re: JDS

Postby Pacific » Wed Oct 14, 2015 7:33 am

Jumping over to JDS from the Edgewater thread:
Re: The Edgewater Grand Opening!: Did Landmarks get it wrong?
Postby gargantua » Tue Oct 13, 2015 10:09 pm

If we don't like that, we can always exact judgement at the next election rather than waiting for the thing to tank. Vote against the principle that we privatize profits and socialize risk. My alder (Schmidt ) voted against, so my only chance to send a message is if septuagenarian Soglin runs again.
- - - - - - - - - - - -

Even if Soglin doesn't run, there's still a good chance for exacting judgement at the next election for mayor in 3.5 years and Council elections in 2017.

Council President Denise DeMarb may be thinking of a mayoral run. In the the morning before she voted to give $47 million to Bob Dunn, DeMarb spoke (auditioned?) at Downtown Madison Inc's. State of the Downtown meeting.
https://twitter.com/dmimadison
DMI always supports big public subsidies for private gain as long as the public money is spent downtown. DMI endorsed DeMarb in the last election and of course is backing the $47 million to Dunn.

Just yesterday DeMarb downplayed the lack of due diligence used by the mayor's negotiating team when the team portrayed Exact Sciences in positive terms as a result of talking to just one stock analyst whose company owns 6% of all Exact stock.
http://www.isthmus.com/news/news/defini ... le-square/

willystresident
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Re: JDS

Postby willystresident » Wed Oct 14, 2015 11:03 am

Suddenly, the Mayor has questions regarding the health of Dunn's deal in light of Exact's recent regulatory hiccups: http://www.forwardlookout.com/2015/10/m ... nces/24004

Better late than never.

EDIT: WSJ article on the letter: http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/ ... bd9b6.html
Last edited by willystresident on Wed Oct 14, 2015 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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