The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.
Henry Vilas
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The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Henry Vilas » Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:45 pm

The Senate just passed a comprehensive immigration reform bill, but I doubt it will stand a chance in the Republican dominated House. And after the Supreme Court ruling on DOMA, the split between the Republican base and moderate/independent voters is only getting worse. How does this bode for the upcoming midterm elections? Gerrymandering only goes so far. Maybe Republican controlled statehouses can put more restrictions on voting in light of the gutting of the Voter Rights Act.

Immigration bill sails through Senate, has little hope in House

Marriage ruling renews GOP centrists-vs.-base feud

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Henry Vilas » Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:22 am

GOP fault lines emerging on social issues

Wisconsin's own Paul Ryan and Scott Walker are mentioned.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Huckleby » Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:01 am

Boehner has said he will respect the Hassert rule when immigration bill comes up for a vote. So only something kooky and pointless will pass the House initially. But he was ambiguous on what he will do when the bill comes back from the conference commitee.

So .... the passing of an immigration bill is up to Boehner. I suppose it also matters whether the conference committee can come up with something that can pass the Senate, I don't know how that works exactly.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Huckleby » Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:04 am

I don't think the gay marriage issue is going to hurt Republicans too badly nationally. It will hurt them a bit, for which I am grateful. But the fact that they are divided is no great big deal. The presidential candidates will just say "let the states decide."

the Republican congressman who is pushing for a constitutional amendment is potentially handing the Dems a great issue nationally, but he will be snuffed-out by more strategic thinking Republicans.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby wack wack » Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:57 am

Huckleby wrote:Boehner has said he will respect the Hassert rule when immigration bill comes up for a vote.


Just curious, can anyone make up non-legal, non-constitutional, non-binding "rules" to disrupt the business of the nation, or is that a right reserved for the Speaker?

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby gargantua » Tue Jul 02, 2013 11:22 am

Huckleby wrote:I don't think the gay marriage issue is going to hurt Republicans too badly nationally. It will hurt them a bit, for which I am grateful. But the fact that they are divided is no great big deal. The presidential candidates will just say "let the states decide."

the Republican congressman who is pushing for a constitutional amendment is potentially handing the Dems a great issue nationally, but he will be snuffed-out by more strategic thinking Republicans.

The fact that they are divided is no big deal? I suspect Mitt Romney and Senate Republicans might beg to differ.

As Hank pointed out, the GOP's concerns are the more immediate 2014 mid-terms. If they fail to flip the Senate at a time when conditions are more favorable for them than it will be for years, it's really gonna be tough for them after that. Keep fighting among yourselves, Republicans! It's good for the rest of us to see who you really are.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Huckleby » Tue Jul 02, 2013 12:28 pm

The REpublicans are not much fighting among themselves over gay marriage.
Republican voters will be solidly opposed to gay marriage for a few more years. GOP politicians running for office will almost all be against gay marriage for forseeable future. It will hurt the party in a small way in the presidential general election. I'll take it.

Look, Chris Christie is adamantly opposed to gay marriage in a blue state, he vetoes gay marriage bills. He is still wildly popular in a very Democratic state. Gay marriage is a small issue for most voters.

The only factor that could flip the dynamic is if some sort of federal legislation or constitutional amendment gets thrust into the national debate. I hope so, but doubt the Repubs will be so foolish.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Huckleby » Tue Jul 02, 2013 12:37 pm

wack wack wrote:
Huckleby wrote:Boehner has said he will respect the Hassert rule when immigration bill comes up for a vote.


Just curious, can anyone make up non-legal, non-constitutional, non-binding "rules" to disrupt the business of the nation, or is that a right reserved for the Speaker?


ya, it is a truly bizarre phenomena that we tolerate.

In Michigan, the same sort of thing just happened. A solid majority in both houses, plus the governor, plus public opinion, want the state to go ahead with medicaid expansion. But a handful of tea party members in the state senate are able to block legislation because the Senate leader won't bring up a vote that slightly less than half of the REpuiblicans will vote for.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Tue Jul 02, 2013 2:52 pm

wack wack wrote:
Huckleby wrote:Boehner has said he will respect the Hassert rule when immigration bill comes up for a vote.


Just curious, can anyone make up non-legal, non-constitutional, non-binding "rules" to disrupt the business of the nation, or is that a right reserved for the Speaker?



Nope, just the Speaker. How they chose to carry out their duties as far as bringing bills to the floor or deciding which commitees will review which bills is purely subjective. I don't believe the senate has a comprable office in terms of authority.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Henry Vilas » Tue Jul 09, 2013 11:17 am

The GOP has found itself between a rock and a hard place over immigration reform. In recent elections they have not been able to win the Hispanic vote and if they oppose reform, they will do even more poorly among that voting population. But if they allow passage of reform, many more Hispanics will eventually be enfranchised without necessary attracting those new citizens in supporting the Republican agenda.

The GOP's Pie-in-the-Sky Plan to Win Hispanic Votes

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Huckleby » Tue Jul 09, 2013 7:29 pm

The G.O.P.'s opposition to Obamacare dooms them with hispanics.

For the short term, maybe Republicans are better off just trying to win a larger share of the white vote, as some are suggesting.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby wack wack » Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:33 am

Huckleby wrote:The G.O.P.'s opposition to Obamacare dooms them with hispanics.

For the short term, maybe Republicans are better off just trying to win a larger share of the white vote, as some are suggesting.


They ONLY way Republicans can hope to hang onto any relevance is to grow white babies.

Furiners, fags, and feticiders don't make white babies.

BTW, for our resident righties: I have trademarked "Furiners, fags, and feticiders don't make white babies"; please contact me regarding licensing if you'd like to include this phrase on your merch at the next white sheet rally.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Huckleby » Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:05 am

It seems like a consensus is forming among Republicans to forget about immigration reform. They think they can win the Senate in 2014, then put together a bill more to their liking.

I think the immigration bill is all but dead. A bad result for the country, bad for hispanics but not bad for Dems politically.

Bill Krystol offers the emerging Republican line:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/kil ... 38781.html

The focus on Obamacare makes it even easier for the House GOP to stay away from immigration. Advocates of the Senate bill are desperate that the House pass something: "'Just vote on something,' urged Janet Murguia, president of the National Council of La Raza. 'We know that if there is a bill that is voted on in the House of Representatives, it will be conferenced with the Senate bill. So just vote on something and let them conference. The conference will be a place where we can negotiate the differences.'" This confirms the fears many of us have had about providing any excuse for going to conference. But the good news is, there's no real-world urgency for the House to pass anything on immigration—since the Democrats won't accept the border-first type legislation the House would pass in any case. So do nothing on immigration.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby fisticuffs » Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:15 am

Huckleby wrote: But the good news is, there's no real-world urgency for the House to pass anything on immigration—since the Democrats won't accept the border-first type legislation the House would pass in any case. So do nothing on immigration.


I thought the dems already caved on the huge spending increase on the border? The hold is up the pathway to citizenship. republicans don't want one. They don't want any more democratic voters and prefer a sub-class of people with no rights to exploit.

Nothing will get passed in the House that isn't a right wing wet dream until there is a democratic majority. Hastert rule has broken our government.

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Re: The GOP, gay rights and immigration

Postby Huckleby » Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:21 am

I don't think the holdup is pathway to citizenship, exactly. The Republicans are actually a level more anal than this: they don't want to even offer legal status until they get everything they want, verified to their standards.

In other words, they want to keep deporting until the impossible task of "sealing the border" has been certified by their house majority.

There ain't gonna be any deal. The most moderate 14 Republican senators are not representative of the Republican party.


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