- Votamatic (Drew Linzer, Emory University): 332 - 206
TPM Electoral Scoreboard (activist/liberal): 328 - 210*
HuffPo (activist/liberal): 317.5 - 220.5*
HorsesAss (Darryl Holman, U. of Washington): 299 - 239
Electoral-Vote.com (Andrew Tanenbaum, Vrije Universiteit): 294 - 244
FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver, NY Times): 294 - 244
Median prediction: 292.5 - 245.5
Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang, Princeton): 291 - 247
Karl Rove (activist/conservative): 283.5 - 254.5*
270toWin (crowdsourced aggregator): 281 - 257
DeSart and Holbrook (Utah Valley University): 281 - 257
RealClearPolitics (activist/conservative): 281 - 257
ElectionProjection.com (activist/conservative): 277 - 261
All of them, even the three right-wing sources (Karl Rove, RCP, and ElectionProjection.com) show Obama with a 10+ point lead in the Electoral College.
The median prediction is Obama 292.5 - Romney 245.5. The closest sites to this median are Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight), Andrew Tanenbaum (Electoral-Vote.com), and Sam Wang (Princeton).
The mode (most common prediction) is Obama 281, Romney 257.
* Three sites (Karl Rove's site, TPM Electoral Scoreboard, and HuffPo Pollster) leave very close states as unassigned "toss-ups". All three of these sites provide state-level polling data, which I've used to assign the toss-up states to either Romney or Obama. Another popular site, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia, also leaves close states as toss-ups but doesn't include polling data, and his results will vary depending on what site's state-level polls one uses to assign toss-up states. Thus I'm not including Sabato's predictions in the above table, but using state-level polling data from any of the major poll aggregators would yield an Obama victory by margins of at least 281 - 257.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/201 ... ctoral-map
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... s_ups.html