Huckleby wrote:I love Nate Silver's blog, his analysis is always plausible and impressive, at least to me. I hunger for his each and every new release, it's a great pick-me-up in a sea of often anxiety-provoking polls, it serves as a "stiffening" shot of whiskey when courage is flagging.
To Kurt W: It's cool you like Nate Silver, I'm glad any time people get interested in electoral polls and prognosticating, but c'mon, fivethirtyeight.com is a wet dream on wheels. Especially this year. An orchard full of cherries to pick. Selective reasoning at its finest. There's no poll he won't take seriously if it casts Obama's chances in a sunny light; and no poll he won't shake a stick at (even PPP) if it makes his prospects appear less rosy. Not only that! His weighting system is as leading as may possibly be. He openly takes seriously the idea that not only will Democrats have a turnout advantage over Republicans, but that they'll have a turnout advantage over Obama's turnout in 2008! Really?
Josh Jordan wrote:I outlined yesterday why Ohio is closer than the polls seem to indicate by looking at the full results of the polls as opposed to only the topline head-to-head numbers. Romney is up by well over eight points among independents in an average of current Ohio polls, the overall sample of those same polls is more Democratic than the 2008 electorate was, and Obama’s two best recent polls are among the oldest.
But look at some of the weights applied to the individual polls in Silver’s model. The most current Public Policy Polling survey, released Saturday, has Obama up only one point, 49–48. That poll is given a weighting under Silver’s model of .95201. The PPP poll taken last weekend had Obama up five, 51–46. This poll is a week older but has a weighting of 1.15569.
The NBC/Marist Ohio poll conducted twelve days ago has a higher weighting attached to it (1.31395) than eight of the nine polls taken since. The poll from twelve days ago also, coincidentally enough, is Obama’s best recent poll in Ohio, because of a Democratic party-identification advantage of eleven points. By contrast, the Rasmussen poll from eight days later, which has a larger sample size, more recent field dates, but has an even party-identification split between Democrats and Republicans, has a weighting of .88826, lower than any other poll taken in the last nine days.
Furthermore, Silver explained on Saturday that a tie in the Gravis Marketing Ohio poll is actually a negative for Romney in his forecast because Gravis shows a Republican-leaning bias in polling. But the Gravis poll released Saturday has a nine point advantage in party identification for Democrats — almost double the Democrats’ advantage in the 2008 election. Then, regarding the PPP Ohio poll mentioned above (where Romney cut Obama’s five-point lead to one in a week), Silver notes that “Public Policy Polling has lost most of the strong Democratic lean that it had earlier in the cycle.”
Now, look at Obama's face in the debates, look at the 5,000 person crowds he's been drawing, look at small minded attacks about Big Bird, Binders, and "Romnesia." Then, let me know if you honestly believe Obama and his campaign share Nate's view of the political landscape. I would say Nate's out of his mind, but the truth is I don't believe he thinks it's an accurate representation either. My suspicion is that Silver knows he's churning out the universe's ultimate push-poll.