Meanwhile, Pew just released
http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/ ... amas-lead/
In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.
Commenters over at FiveThirtyEight are begging Nate Silver, propagandist, to reassure them the Pew poll can't be right. No update from Nate since last night at 8:10 when he felt forced to acknowledge a reality he and his readers find scary:
"I feel as though it’s my duty to tell you when my subjective estimate of the odds differs by a material amount from the ones that our model produces. On Friday and Saturday, I wrote that I thought the model was underestimating Mr. Romney’s chances. My subjective estimate of Mr. Romney’s chances is still a bit higher than the one our model lists officially, but the gap has closed quite a bit. [...]This is not to suggest, however, that Mr. Romney did not make tangible and important gains at the debate. Among other things, he presented himself as competent and cool-headed, and managed to shift his positions toward the center without getting too much immediate pushback for it. And he rekindled Republican enthusiasm about his chances, avoiding a potential “death spiral” trap in which Republicans began to redirect resources toward Congressional races.