Scott Walker Intrade Updates

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Meade
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Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:45 pm

Since fisticuffs disciplined me for sullying his Red Menace topic, I'm obediently posting a new topic. From over there:
O.J. wrote:
Larry is just freaking out because the latest from Intrade suggests that Obama has a 61% chance of re-election. This isn't some poll that Larry would choose to ignore if it didn't fit his needs, this is a perfect example of people putting their money where their mouths are, in a free market. Larry is apoplectic today, let's give him a break.


INTRADE
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker to win the 5 June 2012 recall election:
61.0% CHANCE
The US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012:
63.3% CHANCE

10 days later:

Obama down to......... 60.1

Walker up to............. 66.8

Mandate down to....... 60.5

1 days later:

Obama up .1 to.......... 60.2

Walker up 1.1 to................ 67.9

Mandate down .3 to....... 60.2
Last edited by Meade on Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:43 am, edited 7 times in total.

Meade
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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:49 pm

Today:

Obama down ....... 60.0

Walker up ............ 68.5

Mandate up ......... 61.0

Bland
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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby Bland » Wed Apr 25, 2012 7:08 pm

You display a profound lack of understanding if you think Intrade is good at predicting outcomes this far in advance. It's not. In the final days or moments before the election it will be (more) accurate (than polls). Until then, it's just a bunch of people pushing buttons on the Internet.

I'm not surprised you don't understand that, but it's sad and pathetic nonetheless.

Meade
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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Wed Apr 25, 2012 7:14 pm

Hear that, O.J.? Bland finds your lack of understanding to be sad and pathetic.

rabble
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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby rabble » Wed Apr 25, 2012 7:20 pm

Why do Republicans keep mimicking the behavior of people they don't like?

It appears to be a common thread across the board. If a Republican does something bad, bring up a time when a Democrat did something remotely similar. Or appeared to do something similar. Anything in the last hundred years will do.

If a liberal does something you don't like, do the same thing, then blame the liberal.

It's like there's some kind of conservative rule book for this sort of thing.

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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby Bland » Wed Apr 25, 2012 7:27 pm

Meade wrote:Hear that, O.J.? Bland finds your lack of understanding to be sad and pathetic.
Um.....no.
Seems to me his original post was mocking you, not supporting the idea that Intrade is an accurate predictive model. Even if I'm wrong, he's not the idiot on here posting updates, so let me be very clear so there's no misunderstanding: YOU are sad and pathetic. Also: Annoying and not in the least bit entertaining.

Meade
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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:12 pm

I think you guys need to be careful not to stroke out.

You know what I find annoying? Sentences that begin with "Um".

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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:17 pm

Hey, Obama just jumped up .1% !!! Better quick sell Romney because people are putting their money where their mouths are.

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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby pjbogart » Wed Apr 25, 2012 10:29 pm

rabble wrote:Why do Republicans keep mimicking the behavior of people they don't like?


Actually, I find this fascinating from a propaganda/psychological perspective. I call it the "I know you are, but what am I?" tactic. Essentially, you accuse your opposition of doing whatever it is that you're doing. For instance, Ned might complain about Democrats being the party of racism by pointing out that Robert Byrd was once a member of the Klan and then lambasting Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton. You sound silly accusing Ned of being a racist after he just accused you of the same, so the tactic is to get in front of the criticism by accusing you of being a racist before he says something racist.

A popular tool within the topics of sexism, racism, class warfare and whenever a sex scandal emerges. You want to be the accuser, not the responder.

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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby ilikebeans » Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:46 pm

pjbogart wrote:A popular tool within the topics of sexism, racism, class warfare and whenever a sex scandal emerges. You want to be the accuser, not the responder.

Yep. Be the first and/or attack your opponent's strong points. Been going on for years now. You can thank Mr. Rove for that bit of evil.

Incidentally, Meade, you might like to think you've taken the place of your lord and master, Mr. Blaska, but trust me-- as little regarded as he was around here, you don't come. even. close.

bdog
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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby bdog » Thu Apr 26, 2012 7:15 am

Meade is playing you all like a fiddle.

Entertaining - to see you Pavlovian dogs respond on cue.

rabble
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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby rabble » Thu Apr 26, 2012 7:57 am

bdog wrote:Meade is playing you all like a fiddle.

Entertaining - to see you Pavlovian dogs respond on cue.

Don't sell yourself short. You never miss a cue. :-)

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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby bdog » Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:10 am

Heh - lately I've been trying to follow PJ's good advice - "don't swing at every pitch".

fisticuffs
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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby fisticuffs » Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:14 am

Meade is playing you all like a fiddle.


Only the song comes out like a 4-year old playing Itsy Bitsy Spider. Meade sure isn't Charlie Daniels. He's more Rebecca Black.

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Re: O.J. Intrade Updates

Postby O.J. » Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:15 am

Bland wrote:
Meade wrote:Hear that, O.J.? Bland finds your lack of understanding to be sad and pathetic.
Um.....no.
Seems to me his original post was mocking you, not supporting the idea that Intrade is an accurate predictive model.


Bland clearly has a much better grasp on reality than Larry does. It's too bad Meade doesn't know anyone to teach him a thing or two about logic.
Last edited by O.J. on Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.


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