This was posted at the AVS Forum. It was soon deleted and it got the member banned. It was a great read, though.
The War is Over. Blu-ray has won, and deep down we all know it
Blu-ray is stomping HD-DVD in sales and movies and STILL has all the CE and studio support advantage it has enjoyed since the beginning. It's over. The war is over. Blu-ray won and all we have to do is wait for HD-DVD to CONTINUE to die. And deep down we all know it.
It really makes sense for self described Blu-ray fanboys like me to not post much anymore on here: Blu-ray is winning in absolutely everything and has no signs of slowing down. And it is winning with everything that counts. Capacity, bandwidth, number of movies, number of studios, numbers of players to choose from, copy protection with new methods yet to be implemented while HD-DVD is stuck, disc reliability with owners of both formats reporting Blu-ray is much more reliable, Blu-ray discs are on average CHEAPER because of no combos, and now Blu-ray has a very clear lead in SALES. I mean what else left is there? We've been hearing for months how "studios will just follow the money" but notice you don't hear that coming from the other side anymore.
What's funny if you look back, the HD-DVD camp has been wrong about just about everything. Hindsight is 20-20. Just look how many "regulars" don't post anymore on here and don't infiltrate every thread. There is a REASON why they don't post much anymore on here. There is nothing really left to argue over. And when they do, the arguments now a days have become just sad and not interesting, which is why I don't post much anymore. I know deep down that they are laughing a little bit inside when the arguments have turned to pornography and Shinco players with no price or release dates. It was fun when we didn't know what the future held as much and the arguments were heated, but now we are supposed to take HD-DVD seriously?
It's amazing how BD proved all these arguments wrong.
Let me summarize:
Remember BD-50's were just science fiction and would never come out? BD-50's were "inherently flawed." Then they did come out.
Then BD-50's were too expensive and wouldn't be common. They were inherently flawed to always be expensive and rare and "not needed." Why? Because the side arguing didn't have the capacity. Then they became more common.
Then MPEG-2 and BD-25 could not reproduce great quality--it was inherently flawed. Then MI:III came out.
Then BD players were all "twice the price of HD-DVD" because they were "all" $1000. And none of these people ever insinuated that these prices would go down--this was an inherent flaw to BD. Then the Sammy dropped to $599 on Amazon and the PS3 was released.
Then the Xbox 360 add-on would "neutralize" the PS3. It did not.
Then MS would announce an HD-DVD drive "built in" to neutralize the PS3. Then they denied that this was ever in the plans.
Then Triple Layer discs (which many recall were announced LAST year) were going to "neutralize the BD capacity advantage." But they never saw the light of day, and are STILL vaporware.
Then Blu-ray's were "vulnerable" to scratches, much moreso than HD-DVD, and they were inherently flawed for rental companies. But then people on here began to realise that it is HD-DVD that is much more vulnerable to scratches and Blu-ray discs were MUCH more reliable. A poll on here found only 3.7% of Blu-ray owners had a problem playing a rental while 25% of HD-DVD owners did. And guys like Gary and Fettastic, who were once hardcore HD-DVD fans who blasted Blu-ray every chance they got last summer, admitted that Blu-ray discs are much more reliable to own and much more resistant to scratches than HD-DVD's. And now these guys are Blu-ray fans! So that argument went away too.
Then the PS3 was released and the "poor sales" proved it would have no effect on Blu-ray. Then it went on to outsell the 360 comparatively at it's launch and now Blu-ray is clearly ahead in sales.
Since at this time of the PS3 launch the HD-DVD fan still had sales arguments on their side, then the arguments were that "studios would follow the money" so it isn't an idiotic decision to support a format that has only 3 major studios releasing content on it, because it was "just a matter of time" before studios would "see the light." Never happened. Still only 3 major studios releasing content on a format that is still basically just Toshiba and an optional video game console add-on, with still only one exclusive studio who seems uninterested in fully supporting the format with "100" mystery titles to be release sometime this year, 90% of which will be on combo! THAT is HD-DVD. And oh, about those sales arguments, well Blu-ray is now outselling HD-DVD so obviously we don't hear the "follow the money" slogan anymore. Notice that? The hope is now in cheap porn and Chinese junk players--and oh, in case you forgot, these players don't have any announced prices or release dates, just like the movies.
After the PS3 arguments the goalposts were switched to CES. CES was going to be big for HD-DVD with new studios going neutral for them and new big name CE companies coming on board. They knew they needed some major CE support and at least one studio going neutral, and this hope was so great that there were literally posters PROMISING people that at least one Blu-ray studio would go neutral at CES. Didn't happen. And as far as CE all they got was some junk names like Shinco not one of them has ever owned, and a bunch of "mystery movies" with no release dates. And oh, don't forget that giant lump of coal from Universal.
These arguments all turned out to be wrong. But at least they were somewhat interesting because we were all waiting with baited breath to see how the PS3 would effect sales and what would happen at CES.
And now that it has turned out that things are not better for HD-DVD now but FAR FAR WORSE, with all the problems they had before but now they have to contend with a better selling Blu-ray who has more movies coming out every week in February than HD-DVD has for the entire month, and you have a situation where there is no real reason to get into arguments anymore on here regarding a "war" because there is no war--we should all admit that, deep down, we all know that Blu-ray has won. It has won with capacity, bandwidth, scratch resistance and reliability for our archives, studios, player choices, more MOVIES, and now clearly BETTER SALES. There is no war anymore. And deep down we all know it and should move on and just get Universal to go neutral so we can come together and focus on the MOVIES.
It WAS fun while it lasted. There sure were some heated debates on here.