Election day

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.
Cadfael
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Re: Election day

Postby Cadfael » Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:29 pm

And nobody is even talking about a third party. That confuses me. I guess it could be because there's no leadership on the left any more but it seems like Bernie and Liz could fill that void if they wanted.

What we got now is a monster with a pretty good base and the rest of the country is rudderless.

pjbogart
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Re: Election day

Postby pjbogart » Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:30 pm

Cadfael wrote:And nobody is even talking about a third party. That confuses me. I guess it could be because there's no leadership on the left any more but it seems like Bernie and Liz could fill that void if they wanted.

What we got now is a monster with a pretty good base and the rest of the country is rudderless.


I think that reliable voters from both Republicans and Democrats recognize that third party voting simply dilutes their power. Some of that is institutional and some of it is psychological. The "Tea Party" was a pretty clever scheme... it allowed Republican voters to distance themselves from a highly unpopular President Bush while still retaining party loyalty. If Democrats were to introduce a "Labor Party", for example, it would likely split their vote, making it even harder to win elections. I think a better solution is to fix the Democratic Party in its current incarnation. What benefits black and LGBT voters should be secondary to what benefits our nation as a whole. Democratic "pet projects" need to take a back seat to a grander vision... a correction of a political system that rewards wealthy donors and obfuscates the difference between Democrats and Republicans.

Democrats need to rebuild their party from the ground up, calving issues that either assimilate them with Republicans or distinguish them in such a way that it alienates large swaths of the general population. Transgender bathrooms are not going to win elections, even if voters are trending towards transgender rights. It's simply not an issue worth expending political capital.

Ned Flounders
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Re: Election day

Postby Ned Flounders » Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:28 am

All the moaning and groaning and hand-wringing here would be depressing indeed if I didn't realize how much energy and enthusiasm there is among Democrats, especially younger ones, elsewhere. Instead of saying "Waah we need better leaders at the top" people are jumping in to help organize or run for office at the grass roots level.

RUN FOR SOMETHING

Run for Something will recruit and support talented, passionate young people who will advocate for progressive values now and for the next 30 years, with the ultimate goal of building a progressive bench.

We’ll take a chance on people the usual “institutions” might never encounter. We’ll help people run for offices like state legislatures, mayorships, city council seats, and more. We’ll do whatever it takes to get more under-35 year-olds on the ballot.


The usual win-rate for first-time candidates is 10%. We're still gathering a few final results from our 72 candidates who ran yesterday -- but we're nearing a 50% win rate.
[...]
Usually, we get 10-15 new candidates signing up per day. Since polls closed last night, more than 100 young progressives have raised their hands to say they want to run. Can’t stop won’t stop, as the kids say.

Run for Something

"Our Revolution" Candidates Won Big Last Night
Our Revolution endorses candidates who support issues Sanders championed, like expanding health care, fighting income and wealth inequality, and getting Big Money out of politics. [...] So far, Our Revolution candidates have won 21 seats—out of 59 races in which the organization made endorsements—with a few more races still to be determined. The group also supported the successful Maine voter referendum to expand Medicaid coverage in the state.

Our Revolution


Trump’s Election Inspired An Army Of Women To Run For Office.

Moser’s story isn’t unique. Across the nation, women from all over the political spectrum decided to run for elected office in the wake of the 2016 presidential race. Within a month of the election, non-partisan organization She Should Run had heard from 4,500 women interested in running for elected office. By February, that number rose to 13,000.


Join us to get 250,000 women running for elective office by 2030

She Should Run

How a Socialist Beat One of Virginia’s Most Powerful Republicans

Perez proceeded to name-check Elizabeth Guzman and Hala Ayala, the first Latinas ever elected to the House, but then Hayes asked him about another candidate—one who’d barely received any national attention throughout the campaign. “There’s also, I believe, a Marine veteran who identifies as a democratic socialist who, if I’m not mistaken, is running competitively with someone in the House GOP leadership,” he said. “The House GOP whip might lose to a socialist Marine veteran? Is that actually happening?”

It was indeed.


Dems’ new plan for 2018: New candidates, more ambition

Democratic leaders say this week’s surprise victories, headlined by gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam’s attention-grabbing nine-point win in Virginia, are making them reconsider the 2018 midterm elections, convinced the party should grow more ambitious amid what they now see as a broad and deep backlash to President Donald Trump.

Not only are party strategists planning to replicate this year’s winning strategies; they’re dead-set on making sure the party continues to find and recruit new candidates in races once viewed as too Republican — confident that Tuesday’s results prove Democrats can win almost anywhere.

“Last night showed we really need to step back and rethink what 2018 is going to look like,” said Greg Speed, president of America Votes, a progressive advocacy group focused in part on state elections. “If there’s one takeaway from 2017, it’s that you got to run to win. And when we field good candidates, anything’s possible.”


and so on and so on. Step outside, there is a vast amount of grassroots action going on. The young people aren't sitting around whining about "Clintons" they're doing something.

Roy
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Re: Election day

Postby Roy » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:48 am

This will probably help a lot.


Paleo2
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Re: Election day

Postby Paleo2 » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:08 am

Roy wrote:This will probably help a lot.



Oddly, it just might.

I can't remember the sources, and I don't know how valid they are, and I think they were both TV, but --

One source said about 40% of the Virginia voters said healthcare was a major, or THE major, issue. These voters went overwhelmingly for the Dems.

Another source said about 30% of the Democratic voters saw their vote as a vote against Trump. By definition 100% of these voted for the Dems.

I looked at all the presidential races from the late 1800s through 2016.

Democrats have only take the Presidency one of 3 ways, and in some cases more than one is true:

1. They are VP when the President dies (Truman, LBJ)

2. The Dems put forward a candidate is who charismatic AND popular (FDR, JFK, Clinton, Obama). Charismatic and unpopular doesn't work (William Jenning Bryant, George McGovern).

3. The GOP and/or the entire economy is in complete disarray (Wilson, FDR, LBJ, Carter, Obama)

Boring Republicans often win (McKinley, Taft, Coolidge, Hoover, Nixon, Bush), but the only boring Democrat who ever won was Jimmy Carter, who was running at a time when the GOP was in shambles and the economy was weak, AND he beat a even more boring Ford in an extremely close election.

In 2016, both parties were in disarray, so the Dems didn't take advantage of the GOP disarray, especially with a boring candidate.

If the GOP is still in complete disarray in 2020, the Dems can win even with a boring candidate. With a popular and charismatic candidate, the Dems could win in a landslide. Unless the Democratic Party continues to fall apart, then all bets are off.

Edit to add: I am not sure if Wilson should be considered boring, but the GOP was in such complete shambles that it didn't matter. Having a World War going on helped his re-election a bit. Anyway, perhaps both Wilson and Carter were boring candidates, but the GOP had to be completely falling apart for them to win.

Donald
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Re: Election day

Postby Donald » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:30 am

Ned Flounders wrote:All the moaning and groaning and hand-wringing here would be depressing indeed if I didn't realize how much energy and enthusiasm there is among Democrats, especially younger ones, elsewhere. Instead of saying "Waah we need better leaders at the top" people are jumping in to help organize or run for office at the grass roots level.


...and so on and so on. Step outside, there is a vast amount of grassroots action going on. The young people aren't sitting around whining about "Clintons" they're doing something.

Absolutely agree, except I'd say that some of us older folks aren't whining either.

Some of us older folks have seen a lot of defeat in our lives, and we don't have much time left to put things right. So sometimes we need time to bitch, but that should be over by now. I always looked at defeat as just another step on the road to victory. Looking for scapegoats to blame is counterproductive. Analyze it and learn from it, but don't let it stop you. You pick yourself up the day after election and start organizing and strategizing for the next one. And if you win, celebrate, analyze and learn, but don't let it go to your head, because you've got to start organizing and strategizing for the next one.

Shorty
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Re: Election day

Postby Shorty » Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:35 am

Here’s A List Of Historic Victories Democrats Had On Election Day
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/de ... mg00000009

Brendon Barber won election as the first black mayor of Georgetown, SC
Ravinder Bhalla was elected mayor of Hoboken, NJ, the first Sikh American to govern a major city
Melvin Carter will be the first black mayor of St. Paul, MN, which is 67% white
Wilmot Collins became the first black person elected as mayor anywhere in Montana
Joyce Craig won election as mayor of Manchester, NH, the first woman to do so in its 266-year history
Laura Curran will be the first female county executive of New York's Nassau County
Janet Diaz won election as the first Latina member of the Lancaster, PA, city council
Jenny Durkan will soon be Seattle's first lesbian mayor
Booker Gainor was elected mayor of Cairo, GA, the first black person to win that office
Elizabeth Guzman and Hala Ayala were the first Latinas elected to the Virginia House of Delegates
Andrea Jenkins became the first openly trans woman of color elected to a city council, in her case, Minneapolis
Vi Lyles became the first black woman elected mayor of Charlotte, NC
Jonathan McCollar will soon become the first black mayor of Statesboro, GA
Lisa Middleton is the first trans person to win a nonjudicial office in CA, in her case the Palm Springs city council
Cathy Murillo is about to become the first Latina to hold the office of mayor of Santa Barbara, CA
Sheila Oliver won election as New Jersey's lieutenant governor, the first black woman to do so
Mary Parham Copelan will become the first female black mayor of Milledgeville, GA
Danica Roem became the first transgender state legislator in America, beating a very conservative incumbent in Virginia
Mazahir Salih will be the first Sudanese-American on the city council in Iowa City
Yvonne Spicer, who is black, became the first mayor of the city of Framingham, MA (it used to be a town)
Tyler Titus won a seat on the Erie, PA, school board, the first openly transgender person ever elected in PA

Ned Flounders
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Re: Election day

Postby Ned Flounders » Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:53 am

Donald wrote:Some of us older folks have seen a lot of defeat in our lives, and we don't have much time left to put things right. So sometimes we need time to bitch, but that should be over by now. I always looked at defeat as just another step on the road to victory. Looking for scapegoats to blame is counterproductive. Analyze it and learn from it, but don't let it stop you. You pick yourself up the day after election and start organizing and strategizing for the next one. And if you win, celebrate, analyze and learn, but don't let it go to your head, because you've got to start organizing and strategizing for the next one.

Lots of wise words in Donald's post there. I was responding to commenters earlier in the thread who were wringing their hands about how hopeless everything is, on literally the day after the Democrats outperformed every expectation.

Young activists (and old ones too) are energized and excited and looking forward to taking it to the next level in 2018. Good for them! That's exactly what we need now.

There are so many, many groups out there right now working hard to defeat the GOP. It's like GHW Bush's "thousand points of light".

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Re: Election day

Postby DCB » Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:23 pm

pjbogart wrote: I think a better solution is to fix the Democratic Party in its current incarnation. What benefits black and LGBT voters should be secondary to what benefits our nation as a whole. Democratic "pet projects" need to take a back seat to a grander vision... a correction of a political system that rewards wealthy donors and obfuscates the difference between Democrats and Republicans.

Democrats need to rebuild their party from the ground up, calving issues that either assimilate them with Republicans or distinguish them in such a way that it alienates large swaths of the general population. Transgender bathrooms are not going to win elections, even if voters are trending towards transgender rights. It's simply not an issue worth expending political capital.


There is nothing in this that makes any sense.
The idea that a political party can only have one single agenda item is just silly.

Civil rights is a basic principle of the modern Democratic party. Abandoning that is not just offensive on its face, but it is also bad politics. One party is embracing all the racists and homophobes. Let them keep the deplorables. You're not going to win any of them over with your Big Government programs anyway.

Did you see what happened in Virginia? Mr. Bathroom Bill got trounced by a trans woman.

There are a lot things wrong with the Democratic party. Embracing equal rights is not one them.

Ned Flounders
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Re: Election day

Postby Ned Flounders » Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:39 pm

Democrats share certain broad values but in different places people will emphasize different things. We don't need to all agree on a single coordinated message.

Danica Roem, the trans candidate DCB mentioned, spent her whole campaign focused like a laser beam on one quintessentially local issue that really mattered to people in her district:

She talked about a highway running through her district. That’s the only thing she talked about from the beginning of her primary to the end of Election Day. That was the thing she focused her attention on. She got a lot of national attention for being transgender and for running against a candidate who sponsored a bathroom bill, but at the end of the day, what the voters really cared about was that highway — and that was what her opponent wasn’t talking about.

What people really want are answers. They want things that impact daily life and they want people committed to working to make sure that their daily lives get just a little bit better.

That issue worked in that district -- good for her to see that and take advantage of it. In another district, a candidate might win by focusing on civil rights, or the economy, or taxes, or schools, or the environment, or racial justice.

We're a big-tent party. We can walk and chew gum at the same time, and we don't all have to agree on everything.

penquin
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Re: Election day

Postby penquin » Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:38 pm

gargantua wrote:I am a pretty reliable Democratic voter and I have zero respect for the Democratic leadership.


Not picking on you personally Garg, but wouldn't it seem that those two items go hand-in-hand? As long as the party knows they have "reliable" votes then why would they need to change anything?

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Re: Election day

Postby gargantua » Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:18 pm

penquin wrote:
gargantua wrote:I am a pretty reliable Democratic voter and I have zero respect for the Democratic leadership.


Not picking on you personally Garg, but wouldn't it seem that those two items go hand-in-hand? As long as the party knows they have "reliable" votes then why would they need to change anything?

I haven't always felt this way about the Democratic leadership. The way the 2016 election was handled changed things.

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Re: Election day

Postby BobbyB » Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:04 pm

penquin wrote:
gargantua wrote:I am a pretty reliable Democratic voter and I have zero respect for the Democratic leadership.


Not picking on you personally Garg, but wouldn't it seem that those two items go hand-in-hand? As long as the party knows they have "reliable" votes then why would they need to change anything?


I'm not answering for garagantua or anyone else, but this question seems to presuppose that "Democratic Party ideals/platform" is the same thing as "Democratic Party leadership," and that's a wobbly assumption.

jonnygothispen
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Re: Election day

Postby jonnygothispen » Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:24 pm

There has always been enthusiasm, but... Virginia just switched to paper ballots too.

https://thedailybanter.com/2017/11/real ... r-ballots/

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Re: Election day

Postby Ned Flounders » Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:03 pm

Democrats picked up another seat in Oklahoma's state senate this week. That's the third OK seat they've flipped from D to R recently. None have gone the other way.

Oklahoma's fiscal situation is a mess, just like neighboring Kansas -- and for the same reasons. Republican governance has trashed the state and the loss of oil revenues has made it even worse.


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