Signs of a shift in Congressional races...

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Ned Flounders
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Signs of a shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flounders » Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:20 pm

The GA-06 congressional election results are still trickling in. At the moment, Jon Ossoff (Democrat) is leading with a hair over 50%, and a slew of other candidates in the low double digits or single digits.

This is Newt Gingrich's old seat, more recently held by Tom Price who resigned when he was appointed to Trump's cabinet. Price won this seat by 20+ points in recent elections.

So whether Ossoff wins this tonight (unlikely but possible) or there's a runoff, the district has already shifted 20+ points from the GOP to the Democrats. Just like the Kansas congressional district in last week's election, which also showed a 20+ point shift.

If that holds up, next year's midterm elections could be a 2006-style bloodbath for the House GOP.

In fact, the parallels with 2006 are striking. Bush won in 2004 and promptly embarked on a (doomed) effort to kill off Social Security, just like Trump's failed effort to gut health care. In both cases the overreach demoralized Republicans and energized Democrats, weakening and dividing the former while uniting the latter.

Of course, gerrymandering by GOP state legislatures has made it very very very hard for the Democrats to compete in House races. They need to win nationwide by something like 12% in order to get a bare majority of House seats.





Editing thread title because the Cook PVI shows a smaller shift than the election results
Last edited by Ned Flounders on Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Cadfael » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:11 am

Ned Flounders wrote:Let's hope for the best.

As long as we all understand that "the best" in this case is slightly less damage to the country, the environment, and the global economy.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby PaleoLiberal » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:26 pm

Of course any statistician (I am NOT one) would tell you that 2 data points are not really sufficient to show a trend. These could both be extreme outliers.
Indeed, Trump barely carried the district. The vote percentage the Democrat got in this election was very similar to the vote percentage Clinton got last November.

And, the time from April 2017 to November 2018 is a very long time in politics.

But, when you combine this with other data points, such as Trump's low approval ratings, feelings from the alt-right that Trump is going into Bush territory, the normal loss of seats by the party in power in an off-year election, etc. add up to probable loss of seats by the GOP. Way to early to predict how many.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Roy » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:28 pm

Image Image

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flounders » Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:46 pm

PaleoLiberal wrote:Of course any statistician (I am NOT one) would tell you that 2 data points are not really sufficient to show a trend. These could both be extreme outliers.

Well, the pattern is suggestive:

KS-04: 2012 (R +31), 2014 (R +33), 2016 (R +31) ... 2017 (R +07) = 25-point swing from previous 3 elections

GA-06: 2012 (R +29), 2014 (R +32), 2016 (R +23) ... 2017 (R +02) = 26-point swing

Next stop is Montana:

MT-AL: 2012 (R +10), 2014 (R +15), 2016 (R +15) ... 2017 (???)

No, I'm not expecting a 25- or 26-point swing in that race, but I think it's fair to say it's potentially winnable by either side. Though at the moment the Republicans are pouring money into that race, while the Democrats are holding back.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby PaleoLiberal » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:10 pm

KS-04 could be an outlier in that Brownback is probably the nation's second worst governor, and has really hurt the state. A few points go to that, a few points for dislike of Trump, a few points because different people running.

GA-06 could be an outlier because the suburban Republicans are not very pro-Trump. He carried the district by about the same margin.

MT-AL should be interesting, because that is a completely different district. Far more rural GOP rather than suburban GOP. Doesn't have Brownback dragging down the ticket. Probably less of an outlier than the other districts.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Igor » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:04 pm

Some of the hardcore red districts were a lot closer for Trump, so it makes sense that these early elections (as well as midterms) that are viewed as "referenda on Trump" are going to look good for the Democrats. I'm not sure it will translate in the long term - the big sort will still make the math tough for Democrats . But in the short term there is a lot to indicate they will do very well.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flounders » Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:24 am

Is this a 2006-style tsunami starting to build?

Ossoff Race Shows Democratic Turnout at Levels Needed for Midterm Wave

Democrats Are Winning the First Round of the 2018 Fight

Lots of good stuff there. Apparently, recruitment for 2018 is looking abysmal on the GOP side:

Potential GOP candidates whom party leaders want to recruit are afraid of walking into a buzz saw, uncertain about what kind of political environment they’ll be facing by the time the midterms come around — and what Trump’s record will look like.

… [A]s Republican strategists examine [Georgia’s] special election, and one for a conservative Kansas seat a week earlier, they’re seeing evidence of a worrisome enthusiasm gap.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are finding that when it comes to recruiting candidates, Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving:

Normally, DCCC recruiters must fly across the country for several months and camp out in swing districts interviewing and prodding “good profile” candidates to run. But the DCCC has been inundated with what they say are very strong recruits from districts across the country, including traditional Republican strongholds.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby gargantua » Wed Apr 26, 2017 7:52 pm

Too bad that doesn't seem to apply to Democratic candidates for governor of Wisconsin.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flounders » Wed May 24, 2017 10:49 am

Last night, Democrats won two special elections in state legislative districts that had both been held by Republicans for decades. The NH district had never, ever elected a Democrat before. In the NY district, Trump had won by a 22-point landslide in November; this time, Democrat Christine Pellegrino won by a 16-point margin. That's quite a swing!

Tomorrow, Montana votes in a US House special election. The state is predominantly Republican, and while Democratic candidate Rob Quist is doing very well, it probably won't be enough to win. Health care has played a big role in that race, though, so today's CBO score might have an impact.

The Georgia special election for Newt Gingrich's old US House seat is looking better than Montana. Jon Ossoff is ahead by 7 among likely voters in the latest poll, and is above 51% -- so even if every undecided voter went Republican, Ossoff would win. But that vote is still a month away, and much could happen between now and then.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Shorty » Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:30 am

GA-06 polls are even before tomorrow's election. Most expensive race in Congressional history.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/1 ... del-239650

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Re: signs of a shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flounders » Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:10 pm

OK, we've had five House elections this year. One was in a Democratic district (CA-34) and there was no Republican on the final ballot (in the primary, the Republicans got 3.2% of the vote).

The other four were all in Republican districts and while the GOP managed to hold all four, they are significantly underperforming previous election results and the Cook PVI for those districts.

Compared to the 2012, 2014, and 2016 House elections, GOP performance was down by 18 points on average.

Compared to the Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) ratings, GOP performance was down by 6 points on average.

Yesterday's South Carolina results were especially gratifying for Democrats. They came within 3 points in a conservative district of a conservative state, with only $250,000 in spending by the DNC and very little attention.

KS-04
Cook PVI: R +15
Average of 12/14/16 elections: R +32
2017 result: R +07

MT-AL
Cook PVI: R +11
Average of 12/14/16 elections: R +13
2017 result: R +06

GA-06
Cook PVI: R +08
Average of 12/14/16 elections: R +28
2017 result: R +04

SC-05
Cook PVI: R +09
Average of 12/14/16 elections: R +18
2017 result: R +03

Editing thread title because the Cook PVI shows a smaller shift than the election results

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Re: Signs of a shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flanders » Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:29 pm

Flounders is floundering.
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Re: Signs of a shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flounders » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:01 pm

Instead of compiling the numbers myself, I could have just linked to this handy summary at Vox:

The overall message of 2017 special elections is that Republicans are in trouble
Democrats are consolidating Clinton’s gains, and Republicans aren’t consolidating Trump’s.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... in-trouble

If the Democrats continue to overperform the PVI in House races, they should be in good shape for 2018. Too bad the Senate map is so shitty this time around, but winning back the House would be a good start.

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Re: Signs of a shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flanders » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:10 pm

Ned Flounders wrote:Instead of compiling the numbers myself, I could have just linked to this handy summary at Vox:

The overall message of 2017 special elections is that Republicans are in trouble
Democrats are consolidating Clinton’s gains, and Republicans aren’t consolidating Trump’s.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... in-trouble

If the Democrats continue to overperform the PVI in House races, they should be in good shape for 2018. Too bad the Senate map is so shitty this time around, but winning back the House would be a good start.

Keep spinning sister. If this is "trouble", I'll take more.


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