20-point shift in Congressional races...

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Ned Flounders
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20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flounders » Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:20 pm

The GA-06 congressional election results are still trickling in. At the moment, Jon Ossoff (Democrat) is leading with a hair over 50%, and a slew of other candidates in the low double digits or single digits.

This is Newt Gingrich's old seat, more recently held by Tom Price who resigned when he was appointed to Trump's cabinet. Price won this seat by 20+ points in recent elections.

So whether Ossoff wins this tonight (unlikely but possible) or there's a runoff, the district has already shifted 20+ points from the GOP to the Democrats. Just like the Kansas congressional district in last week's election, which also showed a 20+ point shift.

If that holds up, next year's midterm elections could be a 2006-style bloodbath for the House GOP.

In fact, the parallels with 2006 are striking. Bush won in 2004 and promptly embarked on a (doomed) effort to kill off Social Security, just like Trump's failed effort to gut health care. In both cases the overreach demoralized Republicans and energized Democrats, weakening and dividing the former while uniting the latter.

Of course, gerrymandering by GOP state legislatures has made it very very very hard for the Democrats to compete in House races. They need to win nationwide by something like 12% in order to get a bare majority of House seats.

But a 20+ point swing nationwide would be plenty sufficient. Let's hope for the best.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Cadfael » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:11 am

Ned Flounders wrote:Let's hope for the best.

As long as we all understand that "the best" in this case is slightly less damage to the country, the environment, and the global economy.

PaleoLiberal
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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby PaleoLiberal » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:26 pm

Of course any statistician (I am NOT one) would tell you that 2 data points are not really sufficient to show a trend. These could both be extreme outliers.
Indeed, Trump barely carried the district. The vote percentage the Democrat got in this election was very similar to the vote percentage Clinton got last November.

And, the time from April 2017 to November 2018 is a very long time in politics.

But, when you combine this with other data points, such as Trump's low approval ratings, feelings from the alt-right that Trump is going into Bush territory, the normal loss of seats by the party in power in an off-year election, etc. add up to probable loss of seats by the GOP. Way to early to predict how many.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Roy » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:28 pm

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Ned Flounders
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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Ned Flounders » Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:46 pm

PaleoLiberal wrote:Of course any statistician (I am NOT one) would tell you that 2 data points are not really sufficient to show a trend. These could both be extreme outliers.

Well, the pattern is suggestive:

KS-04: 2012 (R +31), 2014 (R +33), 2016 (R +31) ... 2017 (R +07) = 25-point swing from previous 3 elections

GA-06: 2012 (R +29), 2014 (R +32), 2016 (R +23) ... 2017 (R +02) = 26-point swing

Next stop is Montana:

MT-AL: 2012 (R +10), 2014 (R +15), 2016 (R +15) ... 2017 (???)

No, I'm not expecting a 25- or 26-point swing in that race, but I think it's fair to say it's potentially winnable by either side. Though at the moment the Republicans are pouring money into that race, while the Democrats are holding back.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby PaleoLiberal » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:10 pm

KS-04 could be an outlier in that Brownback is probably the nation's second worst governor, and has really hurt the state. A few points go to that, a few points for dislike of Trump, a few points because different people running.

GA-06 could be an outlier because the suburban Republicans are not very pro-Trump. He carried the district by about the same margin.

MT-AL should be interesting, because that is a completely different district. Far more rural GOP rather than suburban GOP. Doesn't have Brownback dragging down the ticket. Probably less of an outlier than the other districts.

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Re: 20-point shift in Congressional races...

Postby Igor » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:04 pm

Some of the hardcore red districts were a lot closer for Trump, so it makes sense that these early elections (as well as midterms) that are viewed as "referenda on Trump" are going to look good for the Democrats. I'm not sure it will translate in the long term - the big sort will still make the math tough for Democrats . But in the short term there is a lot to indicate they will do very well.


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