Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

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fflambeau
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Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby fflambeau » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:27 pm

It's got to have the GOP and Donald Trump worried. A progressive Democrat, Jon Ossoff, leads in the special election for the 6th Congressional District (part of Atlanta, Georgia). The opening resulted when Tom Price left his seat to join in the Trump Team (note that Price was and had been a Washington, D.C. insider for years!).

The good news is that the Democrats lead in polls for the congressional opening. This will essentially be seen as a referendum on Trump's first 3 months in office (the special election is on 18 April). Ossoff's campaign slogan: "We can be a strong, prosperous, secure nation and STAY TRUE TO THE CORE AMERICAN VALUES THAT UNITE US." (emphasis his (by way of color) )

Here's (1) a link to a story about it; and (2) a link to Ossoff's campaign page.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/g ... off-236703

Roy
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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby Roy » Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:51 pm

fflambeau wrote:This will essentially be seen as a referendum on Trump's first 3 months in office (the special election is on 18 April).

No it will not be seen as any kind of referendum? Where do you pull this stuff out of?

It is an election, mostly affected ( as all races are ) on local politics.

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby Ned Flounders » Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:14 am

fflambeau wrote:The good news is that the Democrats lead in polls for the congressional opening. This will essentially be seen as a referendum on Trump's first 3 months in office (the special election is on 18 April).

That is a heavily Republican district - it was Newt Gingrich's old seat, and Price won last time by like 20 points. My guess is that Ossoff will comfortably win the first round but fall short of 50%, so there will be a runoff, and with only one Republican in the runoff the district's normal partisan leanings will keep the district in the Red column.

There are a few promising signals. The polling looks good. Ossoff has benefited from an immense outpouring of small individual donations, presumably from people who are sick of Trump and the GOP. And the fact that the National Republican Campaign Committee is suddenly pouring resources into this race is, paradoxically, good news: it suggests that the GOP has internal polling data suggesting that Ossoff could actually win the first round outright.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/ ... rgia-sixth

I doubt that will happen, though. The district is just too heavily Republican. It's amazing to see how well a Democratic candidate is doing in that district, and yes, that's a sign of the times, but he probably won't win in the end.

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby Shorty » Mon May 22, 2017 1:48 pm

Ossoff failed to get 50% so the runoff election is in June. Meanwhile, Montana has an interesting election Thursday.

Like most things in politics today, Montana House race is a referendum on Donald Trump
https://www.yahoo.com/news/like-things- ... 21839.html

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby Shorty » Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:13 am

Ossoff lost by 3.8%. Most expensive congressional election ever. Dems better stick to baseball.

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby PaleoLiberal » Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:37 am

People seem to assume the elections are between a generic Democrat and a generic Republican.

They are not.

Good news: Ossoff did much better than Democrats have done in the past in that district, but not any better than Hillary Clinton did.

Bad news: Ossoff lost a race a good Democrat could've won.

The fact of the matter is, Ossoff did not even live in the district. He runs a business located outside the district. He lives with his girlfriend out of wedlock, which could turn off some culturally conservative voters. Ossoff did not have the network of support within the district his Republican opponent had.

Essentially, this was a case of the Democrats trying to win with someone whose only qualification is being Not a Republican. And it worked about as well in the GA-6 district as it worked in the Wisconsin 2014 governor's race with Mary Burke, or the recall election before then.

I have seen both Democrats and Republicans lose close races where their main thing was Not the Opponent.

It's almost as if voters respond to a real message as to why they SHOULD vote for the candidate, rather than why they should vote against the opponent.

From a marketing point of view, Make American Great Again was vastly superior to I'm with Her or I'm Not Trump.

The Democrats keep making the same mistakes over and over and over and can't understand why they lose.

I remember the great political scientist Aldoph Reed, Jr. warned the Democratic party DECADES ago that they would falter if they went on the direction of identity politics rather than being the party of working people. Now days it seems like every pundit is finally noticing the same thing.

I am biased because Adolph Reed, Sr. was a close family friend, but Adolph Reed, Jr, is acknowledged by many as being one of the most brilliant, if not THE most brilliant, political scientist in the US. Admittedly he is a bit of a crank at times, and seems to hate just about everyone. And he was accused by many people of being a race traitor for not embracing Obama. However, his points are valid.

Identity politics can be a double edged sword. Embracing illegal aliens, who can't legally vote, may have been a reason why the black turnout was lower in places like Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Had the black turnout been anywhere near as high in 2016 as it was in 2012, Clinton would've won the election. The working class blacks I have known have not always been fans of the illegal aliens with whom they have to compete for jobs, etc.

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby Roy » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:56 am

Well maybe you can support Erik Holder. He may run in 2020.

Evert Republican I know would be happy with that.

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby doppel » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:29 pm

Maybe good ole Mr flammmboringo will quit posting Politico's "polls". Nah, it's the only hope that the dope has. Worked out once again, right flamey? Is this election still a harbinger for Trump in 2020?(creaks and groans as he hauls out his back pedal machine).

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby fflambeau » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:02 pm

The GOP candidate last time around in the same district won by 23%, this one won by 1% in highly Republican Georgia. Democrats have lost races but they have been in red states: South Carolina, Montana, and Georgia. Those are traditionally Republican states. What is encouraging is how closes the races have been. Ignore that at your own peril in 2018.

Ned Flounders posted a good analysis with a terrific chart on the results in another thread, "Signs of a Shift in Congressional Races".

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby doppel » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:43 pm

fflambeau wrote: This will essentially be seen as a referendum on Trump's first 3 months in office

The question was how do you think this portends Trump's 2020 chances? You said it was a reflection on the start of his term. And do still believe in unicorns and Politico's"polls"? Are you going to keep posting them as long as they fit your narrative?

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby jonnygothispen » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:55 pm

Georgia is where one of W's IT guys, Stephen Spoonamore, sort-of caught the President of Diebold rigging the election for Saxby Chambliss in 2002. The polls showed Max Cleland 5% ahead of Chambliss throughout the campaign, but Chambliss suddenly "won" by 7%.

https://www.electiondefense.org/georgia-2002-1/

https://www.opednews.com/articles/ew-ev ... 8-552.html

https://harpers.org/archive/2012/11/how ... lection/6/

“We were told that it was intended to fix the clock in the system, which it didn’t do,” Diebold consultant and whistle-blower Chris Hood recounted in a 2006 Rolling Stone article. “The curious thing is the very swift, covert way this was done. . . . It was an unauthorized patch, and they were trying to keep it secret from the state. . . . We were told not to talk to county personnel about it. I received instructions directly from [Bob] Urosevich. It was very unusual that a president of the company would give an order like that and be involved at that level.”

Mike Connell: https://www.democracynow.org/2008/12/22 ... s_in_plane

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby doppel » Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:06 am

fflambeau wrote:The GOP candidate last time around in the same district won by 23%, this one won by 1% in highly Republican Georgia.


Where do you come up with shit? This is straight from the horses mouth, Nancy Pelosi. Copied and pasted from your favorite, "Politico".

" Pelosi also pointed out that Ossoff lost by only a small margin in the 6th Congressional District race — 3.8 percent — far smaller than the previous Democratic candidate for the seat lost by in November."

I guess this makes you a one per-center.

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Re: Democrat leads Polls in Special Election (in Georgia)

Postby DCB » Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:25 am

doppel wrote:
" Pelosi also pointed out that Ossoff lost by only a small margin in the 6th Congressional District race — 3.8 percent — far smaller than the previous Democratic candidate for the seat lost by in November."

She's not wrong. Ossoff really did do much better. And ff is not wrong for quoting her. That is something positive for the Democrats.

My criticism of this is that its not enough. If every single Dem does 20 points better than average in all 435 Congressional districts in 2018, will that change the balance of power in the house?

It might depend on the WI gerrymandering case the Supreme Court took up. If Justice Kennedy decides that the FitzWalkerstan approach to rigging elections is kosher, it really won't matter.


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