The Suddenly $750 Pill

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.
Henry Vilas
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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby Henry Vilas » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:13 am

Martin Shkreli says 'of course' he'd raise drug price again

He knows the upcoming Trump administration will turn a blind eye to any price gouging.

PaleoLiberal
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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby PaleoLiberal » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:26 am

Henry Vilas wrote:Martin Shkreli says 'of course' he'd raise drug price again

He knows the upcoming Trump administration will turn a blind eye to any price gouging.


Which is why pharma stocks went up substantially when Trump was elected.

Good for my prospects, since I am currently with a pharma startup.

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:06 pm

PaleoLiberal wrote:Which is why pharma stocks went up substantially when Trump was elected.


Actually, they haven't. From November 10-December 24, they are down about 3%. The Dow for the same period is up about 8%.

Even more interesting is the 6 month chart. Prices peaked at the end of July, up about 11% from June 24. Then they declined to about -8% or about 19% off the peak on election day. Since then they have come back to where they are only down about -3% or 14% off their July 30 peak.

The 5 year chart of drugs vs Dow is also educational.

It is hard to read the chart precisely so I may be off a day or two and a point or two.

I tried to embed images of the charts but could not. Just click on the 6 month view under the chart. Then click on Dow in the overlay menu above the chart.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DRG

John Henry

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:13 pm

The above is not to say you ware wrong to invest in pharma. I can see their stock prices increasing for 2 reasons:

1) Trump ran on decreasing regulation in general. Since the pharma industry is highly regulated, for good or ill, decreasing regulatory costs will have a greater impact than it might in a less heavily regulated industry. If they facilitate drug approval by reducing or eliminating the efficacy requirement, that will drop costs bigly. Less costs mean more profit.

2) US business has hundreds of billions of dollars parked overseas. Pharma companies own a fair chunk of that money. Right now it is sitting relatively idle. If Trump can get his tax relief plan passed that money can come home for 10-15% tax. Back home in the US it can be put to productive use or passed on to the owners in the form of dividends.

Expectation of either or both will have a positive impact on stock prices.

John Henry

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:15 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote:The above is not to say it is wrong to invest in pharma. I can see their stock prices increasing for 2 reasons:

1) Trump ran on decreasing regulation in general. Since the pharma industry is highly regulated, for good or ill, decreasing regulatory costs will have a greater impact than it might in a less heavily regulated industry. If they facilitate drug approval by reducing or eliminating the efficacy requirement, that will drop costs bigly. Less costs mean more profit.

2) US business has hundreds of billions of dollars parked overseas. Pharma companies own a fair chunk of that money. Right now it is sitting relatively idle. If Trump can get his tax relief plan passed that money can come home for 10-15% tax. Back home in the US it can be put to productive use or passed on to the owners in the form of dividends.

Expectation of either or both will have a positive impact on stock prices.

John Henry

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:15 pm

The above is not to say it is wrong to invest in pharma. I can see their stock prices increasing for 2 reasons:

1) Trump ran on decreasing regulation in general. Since the pharma industry is highly regulated, for good or ill, decreasing regulatory costs will have a greater impact than it might in a less heavily regulated industry. If they facilitate drug approval by reducing or eliminating the efficacy requirement, that will drop costs bigly. Less costs mean more profit.

2) US business has hundreds of billions of dollars parked overseas. Pharma companies own a fair chunk of that money. Right now it is sitting relatively idle. If Trump can get his tax relief plan passed that money can come home for 10-15% tax. Back home in the US it can be put to productive use or passed on to the owners in the form of dividends.

Expectation of either or both will have a positive impact on stock prices.

John Henry

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby gargantua » Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:40 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote:
johnfajardohenry wrote:The above is not to say it is wrong to invest in pharma. I can see their stock prices increasing for 2 reasons:

1) Trump ran on decreasing regulation in general. Since the pharma industry is highly regulated, for good or ill, decreasing regulatory costs will have a greater impact than it might in a less heavily regulated industry. If they facilitate drug approval by reducing or eliminating the efficacy requirement, that will drop costs bigly. Less costs mean more profit.

2) US business has hundreds of billions of dollars parked overseas. Pharma companies own a fair chunk of that money. Right now it is sitting relatively idle. If Trump can get his tax relief plan passed that money can come home for 10-15% tax. Back home in the US it can be put to productive use or passed on to the owners in the form of dividends.

Expectation of either or both will have a positive impact on stock prices.

John Henry

Dude. Please quote yourself more. Can't get enough of it.

gargantua
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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby gargantua » Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:42 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote:The above is not to say it is wrong to invest in pharma. I can see their stock prices increasing for 2 reasons:

1) Trump ran on decreasing regulation in general. Since the pharma industry is highly regulated, for good or ill, decreasing regulatory costs will have a greater impact than it might in a less heavily regulated industry. If they facilitate drug approval by reducing or eliminating the efficacy requirement, that will drop costs bigly. Less costs mean more profit.

2) US business has hundreds of billions of dollars parked overseas. Pharma companies own a fair chunk of that money. Right now it is sitting relatively idle. If Trump can get his tax relief plan passed that money can come home for 10-15% tax. Back home in the US it can be put to productive use or passed on to the owners in the form of dividends.

Expectation of either or both will have a positive impact on stock prices.

John Henry

Keep double posting too. Everybody likes to see self-quoting and double posting.

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby bdog » Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:00 pm

Self quoting has value when people create a strawman.

No clue if JFH did it because of that.

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby gargantua » Sun Dec 25, 2016 3:06 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if alcohol or some other mind-altering substance was involved. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby johnfajardohenry » Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:44 am

It was the Russians! They hacked my account.

I have that on ultra, ultra, double plus secret background from the CIA.

John Henry

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby Henry Vilas » Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:25 pm

Don't know if it will do any good, but...Lawsuits against EpiPen maker moving forward.

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:15 pm

Henry Vilas wrote:Don't know if it will do any good, but...Lawsuits against EpiPen maker moving forward.


I read the article and could not find anything about the basis for the suit. What is Mylan doing illegal?

The closest I could find was this near the end of the article:

“The only country in the world where Mylan requires a customer to purchase a Two-Pak of the EpiPen is the United States,” according to a lawsuit filed by The Lanier Law Firm and Sharp Law in federal court in Kansas. The lawsuit says there is no medical reason to require that people buy two.

“This discrepancy proves that Mylan is motivated by profits and greed, not medicine or the welfare of its customers,” the lawsuit says.

The lawsuit also alleges Mylan has a monopoly. Competitors, it says, have been unsuccessful in lobbying the Food and Drug Administration to approve another auto-injector “that can reliably deliver the right amount of epinephrine.”


I get the profit and greed motivation. I get that there may be no medical reason for needing to buy 2. (So why can't pharmacies sell them individually like they do tablets?) I get that Mylan may not care about the welfare of their customers. None of that is illegal as far as I know.

They say that Mylan has a monopoly but that may be just semantics. Anyone can make the epipen. All they need to do is figure out how and jump through all the regulatory hoops and get approval to do so. It has nothing to do with "lobbying the FDA to approve" it. It has to do with testing and documenting.

One company tried but were unable to make it safely and effectively. I don't see what is so hard about the technology but it apparently is.

John Henry

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby johnfajardohenry » Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:59 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote:2) US business has hundreds of billions of dollars parked overseas.


I apparently understated this by quite a bit. Don Surber recently gave the figure of $2.7 trillion held, untaxed, overseas. He didn't give a link so I went looking. I did not find the $2.7T but did find a number of sources from 2014-15 putting it at $2.1T.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... 8U20151006

Either way, quite a bit more than the hundreds of billions I thought I had heard previously.

Trump's proposed 15% repatriation tax on this money would bring in $315bn. Pretty nice chunk of change.

If all the money came back to the US, after tax it would be a bit more than $1.75 trillion available for investment in economic activity. Probably would create a couple hundred thousand new direct jobs and lots more indirect ones.

It might even make pharma stocks go up.

John Henry

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Re: The Suddenly $750 Pill

Postby johnfajardohenry » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:21 pm

He's not even president yet and...

CVS generic competitor to EpiPen, sold at a 6th the price
[Associated Press]
TOM MURPHY
Associated Press January 12, 2017

CVS is now selling a rival, generic version of Mylan's EpiPen at about a sixth of its price, just months after the maker of the life-saving allergy treatment was eviscerated before Congress because of its soaring cost to consumers.

The drugstore chain says it will charge $109.99 for a two-pack of the authorized generic version of Adrenaclick, a lesser-known treatment compared to EpiPen, which can cost more than $600.

CVS Health Corp., the nation's second-largest drugstore chain, says it cut the price it charges for the generic version of Adrenaclick nearly in half. The lower price is now available at all CVS stores. The chain runs about 9,600 retail pharmacies in the United States, including several locations inside Target stores.

...



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cvs-puts- ... 16040.html

He's not even president yet. It is astounding to think about what he will be able to accomplish after Friday!

I don't think I'll ever get sick of winning.

So far the little we know of his replacement of Obamacare sounds pretty sweet too.

Pharma companies don't like it which should make folks in this forum happy.

Trivia note: The reason the epinephrine injectors are sold in two packs rather than as onesies is because in 10-20% of cases, a single shot is not enough to stop the shock attack. It is also unpredictable who will need 2. Thus the FDA requirement for a 2 pack.

John Henry


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