97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

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Sandi
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Sun May 18, 2014 8:43 pm

kurt_w wrote:There may be some dispute about how continuous that retreat has been; in some areas its seems to have been mostly prior to 10,000 years ago.

There's also evidence that during some previous interglacials, WAIS may have shrunk a lot, and added several meters to sea level.

So WAIS is clearly pretty unstable. It's possible, though by no means certain, that even without human intervention it would keep shrinking, particularly if this interglacial turns out to be like MIS11 and lasts an unusually long time.

But all the fossil carbon we're burning will accelerate that process, shortening the timeframe and increasing the total amount of ice lost and the amount of sea level rise.


Thank you. Finally we can agree. Probably the only disagreement might be the "amount" of acceleration due to burning fossil fuels.

However I'm sure that most of the agreement ends there. While you will say that the results of a degree or two warmer will be catastrophic, I look forward to an extra degree or two as a boon to crops, fewer deaths from winter cold etc.

Sandi
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Sun May 18, 2014 8:45 pm

kurt_w wrote:
Sandi wrote:If you are going to post, at least get a bit of background on the subject first.

Hilarously, monumentally ironic.


I see. So you want to devolve into trolling and name calling? I think, or at least thought you are better than that. From rabble and others I expect it, not from you.

kurt_w
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Sun May 18, 2014 9:01 pm

Sandi wrote:
kurt_w wrote:
Sandi wrote:If you are going to post, at least get a bit of background on the subject first.

Hilarously, monumentally ironic.


I see. So you want to devolve into trolling and name calling? I think, or at least thought you are better than that. From rabble and others I expect it, not from you.

I'm not calling anyone names. I'm just pointing out the irony in you, of all people, lecturing rabble about this. Given your record in this thread...

DCB
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Mon May 19, 2014 8:19 am

Sandi wrote:However I'm sure that most of the agreement ends there. While you will say that the results of a degree or two warmer will be catastrophic, I look forward to an extra degree or two as a boon to crops, fewer deaths from winter cold etc.


Always look on the bright side of life!

Well, some crops anyway. But not in the areas that will be hit by long-term drought. Or flooding.

Are you also looking forward to heatwaves and wildfires?

And of course many coastal US cities will be under water.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Mon May 19, 2014 8:25 am

This is why Sandi of all people should not be lecturing others about the accuracy of their claims. Here's a quick sample from just the last three months of Sandi's mis-statements and misunderstandings in the climate change threads:

That list is not comprehensive, it's just some that popped up quickly in a search. I don't feel like wading back through a couple dozen pages of thread to track down every instance.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Mon May 19, 2014 8:36 am

DCB wrote:
Sandi wrote:However I'm sure that most of the agreement ends there. While you will say that the results of a degree or two warmer will be catastrophic, I look forward to an extra degree or two as a boon to crops, fewer deaths from winter cold etc.


Always look on the bright side of life!

Well, some crops anyway. But not in the areas that will be hit by long-term drought. Or flooding.

Are you also looking forward to heatwaves and wildfires?

And of course many coastal US cities will be under water.

Yeah.

I find it fascinating how Sandi always exaggerates the uncertainty about most aspects of climate change -- models can't tell us anything, no one knows what's natural and what's caused by humans, we can't say whether it'll be warming or cooling in the future -- but then Sandi is 100% positive that the results of warming will be great!

No uncertainty at all there ... despite the fact that it's a much harder topic to study than most of the other stuff.

It's quite the triumph of motivated reasoning.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Mon May 19, 2014 9:09 am

DCB wrote:Back in 1995 (almost 2 decades ago!) some researchers predicted that global warming would lead to more intense rain.
In the National Climate Assessment, published last week, researchers in the United States reported that “large increases in heavy precipitation have occurred in the Northeast, Midwest and Great Plains, where heavy downpours have frequently led to runoff that exceeded the capacity of storm drains and levees, and caused flooding events and accelerated erosion.”

In the National Climate Assessment, the experts reported huge increases since the mid-20th century in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy rainstorms: up 71 percent in the Northeast, 37 percent in the Midwest and 27 percent in the Southeast. The effect was seen on a smaller scale west of the Mississippi River, too, even in parts of the country where the climate is drying out over all.


Or maybe its sunspots.

And not just in the US. Worldwide, more and more rain is coming in a few intense downpours rather than more frequent lesser events.

The results look like this:

At Least 37 Dead, Thousands Displaced in Massive Balkan Floods

The economic impact of the floods is likely to be huge, devastating the agricultural sector vital to both the Serbian and Bosnian economies.

“These are the kind of waters not seen in 1,000 years, let alone 100,” Prime Minister Vucic told a televised cabinet session.

Officials say about a million people — more than a quarter of the country's population — live in the worst-affected areas.


Ironically, one casualty of the flooding is the region's largest coal-fired power plant, which has already been forced to cut back its output and is at risk of further flooding now.

In hilly terrain like this, flooding also leads to massive landslides -- hundreds so far.

Image

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby snoqueen » Mon May 19, 2014 11:24 am

Wyoming rejects the teaching of climate science, and this time the economic reasoning is explicit, not concealed. In a way, that's progress:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/19/us ... d-oil.html

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby manoletters » Wed May 21, 2014 12:55 pm

Well, at least Global Climate Change has forced erstwhile enemies, Serbians, Bosnians and Croats alike, into the same boat, no cruel pun intended.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mbvd/20-heartbr ... ans-floods

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Stebben84 » Tue Jun 03, 2014 12:24 pm

Ruh Roh Sandi:

A Washington Post-ABC poll released Monday found that 70 percent of Americans support federal limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. Seventy percent also said that the federal government should "require states to limit the amount of greenhouse gases produced within their borders."


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/0 ... 33775.html

Looks like scientific argument vs. "Sandi's best guess" is winning.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Ned Flanders » Tue Jun 03, 2014 12:40 pm

Wait 'til their electric bills skyrocket and they live through a few blackouts....

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Tue Jun 03, 2014 3:23 pm

Ned Flanders wrote:Wait 'til their electric bills skyrocket and they live through a few blackouts....

He's probably right. They won't even notice the electric companies are inflating the cost and purposely staging the blackouts to excuse the rate increases.

Oddly, the blackouts will only happen where the one percent doesn't live.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Ned Flanders » Tue Jun 03, 2014 3:39 pm

rabble wrote:Oddly, the blackouts will only happen where the one percent doesn't live.

Well, we'd hate to inconvenience Al Franken and Nancy Pelosi.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Sun Jun 08, 2014 12:31 am

A few more islands feel the effects of rising seas.


Virtually everybody in the Marshall Islands has been affected by the recently crumbling coastline, including Christopher Loeak, the nation’s president, who has watched over the years as the beaches where he fished as a boy have vanished and roads on his island home have been moved inland.

He told The Telegraph earlier this year that he was “afraid for our children and grandchildren”.

“The island is not only getting narrower - it is getting shorter,” he said.

“That is our worry – the disappearing of the land. People have had to move on many islands. We are not only talking about the land but the trees, our food security. We have lost rows and rows of coconut trees – they have been washed away.”

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Sun Jun 08, 2014 3:00 pm

People think that a foot or two of sea level rise doesn't sound like much. But when infrastructure is involved, the costs become immense.

Norfolk, VA is facing huge, huge problems from sea level rise:

The city hired a Dutch consulting firm to develop an action plan, finalized in 2012, that called for new flood gates, higher roads and a retooled storm water system. Implementing the plan would cost more than $1 billion — the size of the city’s entire annual budget — and protect Norfolk from about a foot of additional water.

As the city was contemplating that enormous price tag, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) last year delivered more bad news: If current trends hold, VIMS scientists said, by the end of this century, the sea in Norfolk would rise by 5.5 feet or more.

“Clearly, we’ve got more work to do,” said Ron Williams Jr., Norfolk’s assistant city manager for planning.


Yep. It doesn't seem like a good idea to spend $1 billion to protect the city from a one-foot SLR if the likely outcome is significantly more SLR than that.

Options for dealing with the water are limited, and expensive. The city could protect itself with more barriers. Williams lamented, for instance, that a new $318 million light-rail system — paid for primarily with federal funds -- was built at sea level. With a little foresight, he said, the tracks could have been elevated to create a bulwark against the tides.

As it stands, the new rail system could itself be swept away, the money wasted. “Nowhere do we have resiliency built in,” he said.

A second option calls for people to abandon the most vulnerable parts of town, to “retreat somewhat from the sea,” as Mayor Paul D. Fraim put it in a 2011 interview, when he became the first sitting politician in the nation to raise the prospect.


One would think that local politicians seriously discussing whether to abandon parts of a major metropolitan area to the rising ocean might cause people to start to take climate change seriously. But the human capacity for willfull blindness and self-delusion is remarkable, so I'm not optimistic.

Larry Atkinson, an oceanographer who is co-director of the Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative at Old Dominion University, said when the mayor was asked about the report, he waved away the question. “He says, ‘I can’t think about five feet. What do you want me to do, move the whole city?’ ”


OK, then. Oceanographers say Norfolk could face anywhere from 1.5 feet to 7.5 feet of SLR by 2100 ... but the city's response will be to plan for 1 foot of SLR and hope for the best.

“By 2040, this will be flooded every high tide,” Atkinson said as he drove north on Hampton Boulevard. “That means the main road to the Navy base will be impassable two to three hours a day.”


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