97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

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Prof. Wagstaff
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Prof. Wagstaff » Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:42 pm

Interesting article -- thanks for posting, Sandi.
That said, it's cute how you left out the word "selectively" from the title. And you did see that in the conclusion it cautiously states only that the effect described might "slightly weaken" some of the more dire forecasts, right? So there will still be warming, just a little bit less than previous predictions.

But here's the thing: Are you saying you believe this article? Because the whole argument is predicated on the notion that warming is caused by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. (It says so right at the top under "Summary".) So are you now admitting that there is warming caused by human activities? Because if not, what do you see as important regarding this study?

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby jman111 » Tue Feb 04, 2014 9:23 am

Thank you for asking.

The inconsistency is only perceived. Because I am not [a climatologist] I will not ever be [studying], or making [scientific] judgements on any part of [global warming or its buffering]. It is our actions, not our thoughts that can be judged in this country.

Therefore my opinions, whether knee-jerk or long thought out, have little to do with my love and appreciation of [the buffering of alleged climate change].

Claiming inconsistency is just something to run with and build with straw.

rabble
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Tue Feb 04, 2014 2:37 pm

Sandi wrote:Nature can buffer the effects of global warming according to research.

Hence, this effect may actually slightly weaken the more dire forecasted aspects of an increasing warming of our climate, the scientists say.

Wow. You mean the absolute worst of the predicted scenarios might be slightly lessened? Just by having water in the air?

We're saved!

Roy
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Roy » Tue Feb 04, 2014 3:23 pm

Prof. Wagstaff wrote:So are you now admitting that there is warming caused by human activities? Because if not, what do you see as important regarding this study?


I have always said that human activity has an effect on global warming. That is not, and never has been an issue. What is in doubt, is that there is any appreciable amount caused by humans.

rabble
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Tue Feb 04, 2014 3:37 pm

Sandi wrote:
Prof. Wagstaff wrote:So are you now admitting that there is warming caused by human activities? Because if not, what do you see as important regarding this study?


I have always said that human activity has an effect on global warming. That is not, and never has been an issue. What is in doubt, is that there is any appreciable amount caused by humans.

So you're saying the article is right about the water buffering part and wrong about everything else?

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:13 pm

bu-bu-bu-but It's science!

And peer reviewed as well:

Over the past decade, before pursuing a particular line of research, scientists (including C.G.B.) in the haematology and oncology department at the biotechnology firm Amgen in Thousand Oaks, California, tried to confirm published findings related to that work.

Fifty-three papers were deemed 'landmark' studies (see 'Reproducibility of research findings'). It was acknowledged from the outset that some of the data might not hold up, because papers were deliberately selected that described something completely new, such as fresh approaches to targeting cancers or alternative clinical uses for existing therapeutics.

Nevertheless, scientific findings were confirmed in only 6 (11%) cases. Even knowing the limitations of preclinical research, this was a shocking result.


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 3531a.html

Thanks to Jerry Pournelle for the tip.

John Henry

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Detritus » Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:30 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote:bu-bu-bu-but It's science!

And peer reviewed as well:

Over the past decade, before pursuing a particular line of research, scientists (including C.G.B.) in the haematology and oncology department at the biotechnology firm Amgen in Thousand Oaks, California, tried to confirm published findings related to that work.

Fifty-three papers were deemed 'landmark' studies (see 'Reproducibility of research findings'). It was acknowledged from the outset that some of the data might not hold up, because papers were deliberately selected that described something completely new, such as fresh approaches to targeting cancers or alternative clinical uses for existing therapeutics.

Nevertheless, scientific findings were confirmed in only 6 (11%) cases. Even knowing the limitations of preclinical research, this was a shocking result.


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 3531a.html

Thanks to Jerry Pournelle for the tip.

John Henry

You know, if you're going to bring up a brand new topic, the etiquette of the forum encourages you start a new thread rather than dump it into an existing thread on a completely different topic.

johnfajardohenry
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:37 pm

Detritus wrote:You know, if you're going to bring up a brand new topic, the etiquette of the forum encourages you start a new thread rather than dump it into an existing thread on a completely different topic.


Nope. Hardly a brand new topic.

This whole thread is about how since (supposedly) 97% of scientists believe in global warming/climate change/whatever, it must be happening.

Science is often spectacularly wrong. If cancer scientists can be so wrong, so can climate scientists.

It does not mean that the climate scientists actually are wrong. But it does show the silliness of hanging one's hat on that 97% figure. Even if it were not bogus.

John Henry

Detritus
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Detritus » Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:52 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote:It does not mean that the climate scientists actually are wrong.
John Henry

Really.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby pjbogart » Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:55 pm

Boy, that John Henry really got you guys good. Some oncologists were wrong about their research so that proves that you can't trust 97% of climate scientists.

Harumph!

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby snoqueen » Sun Feb 09, 2014 9:07 pm

He thinks you do climate research the same way you do medical research: double-blind studies, studies with a control group receiving a placebo, stuff like that.

What if we, um, quit using coal in Minnesota but kept on using it in Wisconsin? Would Wisconsin get warmer and Minnesota get colder?

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sun Feb 09, 2014 9:26 pm

Detritus wrote:
johnfajardohenry wrote:It does not mean that the climate scientists actually are wrong.
John Henry

Really.


But it doesn't mean they are right, either.

It means that anyone who believes that 97% figure is a fool.

John Henry

Detritus
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Detritus » Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:09 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote:
Detritus wrote:
johnfajardohenry wrote:It does not mean that the climate scientists actually are wrong.
John Henry

Really.


But it doesn't mean they are right, either.

It means that anyone who believes that 97% figure is a fool.

John Henry

Doesn't prove them right. Doesn't prove them wrong. Then how does it have anything to say about the 97% figure?

Don't both trying to work that one out, Jack. It's above your pay grade.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:39 pm

Given that all science is riddled with errors, its a good thing we don't use it to make public policy decisions.
Better to just go with your gut.

Prof. Wagstaff
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Prof. Wagstaff » Mon Feb 10, 2014 7:33 am

pjbogart wrote:Boy, that John Henry really got you guys good. Some oncologists were wrong about their research so that proves that you can't trust 97% of climate scientists
It's true you know. Science has now proven that apples are oranges. Of course, they likely forgot to correct for parallax, so we should probably just go on the Internet to explain how science doesn't actually work.


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