97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

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Roy
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Roy » Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:09 pm

PaleoLiberal: No science
Jman: No science.
Gargantua: No science

Edit to add:

Cadfael: No science

Still waiting for a reply that uses science, not attacks.
Last edited by Roy on Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Cadfael
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Cadfael » Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:09 pm

Judge not, lest ye be judged.

PaleoLiberal
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby PaleoLiberal » Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:18 pm

gargantua wrote:This is an observation, not science. Last winter I used my snowblower one time, to clear my driveway of snowplow leavings. This winter, I not only didn't use it once, I didn't even bother to put gas in it.
I've lived in Madison for six decades, and I've never seen that before. Again, not speaking to the science, just personal experience. I think that has a little value, since that's how we interact with the world.


These are the LOCAL manifestations of a GLOBAL phenomenon.

Essentially, Madison is now in a different climactic zone that what it used to be in. By climactic zone, I am referring to the zones used to determine which species of plants would thrive in this environment, given the severity of the winter. Madison has been on the borderline for quite some time, but flipped to a warmer climactic zone.

That means, there are plants that in previous times would not be able to survive the Madison winters which do just fine now.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Thu Mar 02, 2017 1:33 pm

Just for kicks, I wanted to point out one amazing calculation back in 1967 that was later shown to be true from satellite measurements. This comes from a paper published by Manabe and Wetherald. Mostly everyone is familiar from radiative transfer how greenhouse gases warm the surface and troposphere. Well, this calculation from M&W predicted that in the stratosphere, the opposite would happen. That is, the more CO2 you have, the cooler the stratosphere would get. Now, one thing that distinguishes the troposphere from the stratosphere is that the temperature in the troposphere decreases with altitude, but in the stratosphere it increases.

In the figure below, the x-axis is the temperature in degrees Kelvin and the y-axis is a measure of atmospheric pressure (left y-axis) which corresponds to altitude (right y-axis). For the 3 concentrations of CO2 at 150, 300 and 600 ppm you can see that the surface temperature increases, but the temperature in the stratosphere decreases by much more than the warming trend at the surface.
Image
This is one of the mechanisms by which climate scientists understand that the warming on the surface is due to greenhouse gases and not variations in the solar intensity. If it were the sun that was the cause of the warming, than the stratosphere would warm like the surface and troposphere, not cool.

What does the data show? Here is a plot of the temperature as a function of time about 40 km above the surface in the stratosphere taken from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). The trend is -0.76 K/decade, far higher than the 0.18 K/decade measured on the surface.
Image

There is one more thing I need to point out. Ozone in the stratosphere exists mostly in the 14 - 30 km layer and UV absorption by ozone is the reason why the temperature increases with altitude. Therefore, it stands to reason, that a decrease in ozone can also lead to a drop in the temperature. However, there are 2 things to point out regarding this: 1) The decrease in ozone has leveled off in recent years (a hearty shout-out to the Montreal Protocol!) and 2) The temperature that I plotted is above the ozone layer.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Cadfael » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:16 pm

Image

Roy
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Roy » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:32 pm

Cadfael is having diarrhea on the threads again. :mrgreen:

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby jonnygothispen » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:53 pm

Image

JoeT
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:44 am

Fascinating bit of climate science that's been picked up by a number of publications. From WaPo,
One of the most troubling ideas about climate change just found new evidence in its favor
Ever since 2012, scientists have been debating a complex and frankly explosive idea about how a warming planet will alter our weather — one that, if it’s correct, would have profound implications across the Northern Hemisphere and especially in its middle latitudes, where hundreds of millions of people live.

The idea is that climate change doesn’t merely increase the overall likelihood of heat waves, say, or the volume of rainfall — it also changes the flow of weather itself. By altering massive planet-scale air patterns like the jet stream (pictured above), which flows in waves from west to east in the Northern Hemisphere, a warming planet causes our weather to become more stuck in place. This means that a given weather pattern, whatever it may be, may persist for longer, thus driving extreme droughts, heat waves, downpours and more.


Publishing in Nature Scientific Reports, Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University and a group of colleagues at research institutes in the United States, Germany and the Netherlands find that at least in the spring and summer, the large scale flow of the atmosphere is indeed changing in such a way as to cause weather to get stuck more often.

The study, its authors write, “adds to the weight of evidence for a human influence on the occurrence of devastating events such as the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heat wave, the 2011 Texas heat wave and recent floods in Europe.”


The original idea that the decrease in temperature gradient between the mid-latitudes and the warming Arctic can lead to an increase in large amplitude stationary Rossby waves was first proposed by UW's own Steve Vavrus and Rutger's Jennifer Francis. The current paper gives a more physical model for the phenomenon.

Video by Kai Kornhuber, one of the co-authors of the study, explains the basic physics.


If you're interested in watching Michael Mann go face to face with Lamar Smith and 3 speakers hand-picked by the Republicans, tune in Wednesday at 9 AM.
Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method

Oil cultist Lamar Smith lays out the anti-science strategy in the Trump era.
Lamar Smith, unbound, lays out political strategy at climate doubters’ conference

I hope Mann kicks some serious butt.

Roy
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Roy » Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:13 pm

JoeT wrote:Ever since 2012, scientists have been debating a complex and frankly explosive idea about how a warming planet will alter our weather — one that, if it’s correct, would have profound implications across the Northern Hemisphere and especially in its middle latitudes, where hundreds of millions of people live.

What a silly statement. "a warming planet will alter our weather." Really! If the climate warms it will affect weather?

That is the kind of childish statement we have come to expect from the religious alarmists.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:18 pm

JoeT wrote:
Oil cultist Lamar Smith lays out the anti-science strategy in the Trump era.
Lamar Smith, unbound, lays out political strategy at climate doubters’ conference

I hope Mann kicks some serious butt.

Joe, as much as I'd like to see that, it doesn't seem possible - its not going to be a forum for honest discussion.
the chairman of the science committee in the U.S. House of Representatives acknowledged that the committee is now a tool to advance his political agenda rather than a forum to examine important issues facing the U.S. research community.

Look at his guest list
climate scientist Judith Curry, who recently retired from the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta; policy specialist Roger Pielke, Jr. of the University of Colorado in Boulder; and John Christy, a professor of earth system science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville

- the last three actual climate scientists in the denialist camp.

I expect the exchange to be something like

Mann: I studied Rossby waves.
Smith: "Rossby waves" sounds like fake science, and you're a poopy head.

But I wish Dr. Mann all the best.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:39 pm

DCB, I think it's taken for granted that it won't be an honest discussion. Even though Mann has the deck stacked against him, I think he can be very effective in making the key points. If you look at Ted Cruz's hearing, it was Rear Admiral David Titley from Penn State against a gaggle of crazies. Titley was highly effective in arguing against the satellite data which is where Christy will come in. The advantage that Mann has is that he is even more knowledgeable than Titley and he has Bill Foster (D-Il) in the audience. Foster is a physicist. I assume at least a part of the hearing will be on attribution. That is, how much of the recent warming is anthropogenic. Mann should be able to hit that out of the park, because it's clear that all of it is man-made. The solar minimum has been the lowest in a century and --- as I wrote above --- you don't get a cooling stratosphere outside the ozone layer if not for increased greenhouse gases.

If you watch the hearing -- I'd be interested in hearing how you thought Mann did.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:09 pm

While I'm at it, a few other interesting climate tidbits:

Communities Retreat as Oceans Swell, Coasts Erode

Erosion, rising seas, ferocious storms and other coastal perils have prompted the resettlement of more than 1 million people worldwide, with an exhaustive new analysis highlighting an emerging migration crisis that’s worsening as global warming overwhelms shorelines.


Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990

Global food security requires that grain yields continue to increase to 2050, yet yields have stalled in many developed countries. This disturbing trend has so far been only partially explained. Here, we show that wheat yields in Australia have stalled since 1990 and investigate the extent to which climate trends account for this observation. Based on simulation of 50 sites with quality weather data, that are representative of the agro-ecological zones and of soil types in the grain zone, we show that water-limited yield potential declined by 27% over a 26 year period from 1990 to 2015. We attribute this decline to reduced rainfall and to rising temperatures while the positive effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations prevented a further 4% loss relative to 1990 yields.


And then there was the report of mass coral bleaching reported by Terry Hughes et al in Nature. It's common for bleaching events to occur during the El Nino part of the ENSO cycle, but right now we are in a neutral phase and the ocean surface temperature are still warm:
The Great Barrier Reef is bleaching yet again, and scientists say only swift climate action can save it

Last year the Great Barrier Reef — the largest coral structure on Earth — saw unprecedented bleaching due to extremely warm ocean temperatures. In major parts of the remote northern sector of the reef, two-thirds of the corals ultimately died.

This was the reef’s third and worst severe bleaching event — prior events occurred in 1998 and 2002. But now, scientists say, yet another event is unfolding that is also quite severe, meaning that the reef is experiencing its first back-to-back bleaching in two successive years.


I might as well add this even though it's not directly climate related. The NYT had a good article today regarding progress on the international fusion device known as ITER that is being built in the south of France.

A Dream of Clean Energy at a Very High Price

It looks like the beginnings of a large commercial power plant, but it is not. The project, called ITER, is an enormous, and enormously complex and costly, physics experiment. But if it succeeds, it could determine the power plants of the future and make an invaluable contribution to reducing planet-warming emissions.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby JoeT » Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:14 pm

No joke. This is the actual tweet from the House Science committee on their hearing tomorrow


Apparently this is how it's done

Trump has launched a blitzkrieg in the wars on science and Earth’s climate

Today, Trump signed executive orders taking aim at America’s climate policies. On the heels of a report finding that the world needs to halve its carbon pollution every decade to avoid dangerous climate change, Trump’s order would instead increase America’s carbon pollution, to the exclusive benefit of the fossil fuel industry.

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby PaleoLiberal » Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:45 pm

Trump knows who the real bosses are.
HINT: Not the US citizens

Roy
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Roy » Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:44 pm

JoeT and Paleo are two fucked up dudes when it comes to understanding science. Image


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