Crockett wrote:The problem is, 90% of the time its all bullshit and its a storyline that's backfitted to the reality of the markets' supply and demand.
Care to back that up with facts or statistics or do we just take your word for it.
Read any daily Reuters energy market report, or watch CNBC as Crockett recommended. Here is an example
. Market reporters almost always state some reasons why the market moved the way it did, or refer to "expert analysts" who cite similar reasons. In reality, they don't know why the market moved, so they are retroactively attributing plausible causes to the market movements observed. If they were really able to accurately pinpoint cause and effect in commodity markets and pricing, they would be billionaires not anonymous analysts working for investment firms. There is no control experiment to isolate causality, nor is there any way to aggregate the reasons that thousands of individual traders used as the basis of their trading decisions that day, so in effect, most all explanations about price movements are bullshit to some degree. And many times the cited reasons have little to do with energy infrastructure directly (e.g. pipeline burst or oil field discovery), but rather with aggregate economic conditions and broad national/international political trends.