pjbogart wrote:I can't help but wonder exactly why John Henry is so convinced that the Democratic ticket will suffer some huge shakeup before the elections.
A few months ago I thought there might be a shakeup because the people who run the Democrat Party would realize that Obama was a loser on the ticket. I figured they might nominate someone else. I still think he is a loser but since it has not happened by now, I doubt it will will happen. One problem is there is no backup to replace him with.
What I do think may happen IF
and it is a big if, Obama sees himself facing a Mondale level defeat (Walter one-state) he may just say "screw it" and quit. All his life everything has been handed to him, he has never had to work for anything very hard and he is not a good loser. At least not an experienced loser. I suspect that he would rather withdraw than lose by that magnitude.
So the question comes down to why I think he is going to lose:
Look at Wisconsin for an indicator. 4 years ago he beat Romney by 12-14 percentage points. Romney is now beating him in the polls. Statistically even, at the moment but Romney is still a point or 2 ahead.
The state has gone, in a only month or so, from "strong democrat" to "in play" to "leans repo". (For Prez, at least)
Obama is having money trouble. A year ago his folks were talking about raising a billion dollars. Now he is having trouble raising a couple hundred million. He is spending it much faster than it is coming in. He is seriously in danger of running out of money before the election.
They are increasingly sounding desperate. That smell of fear will exacerbate his money troubles. See the stories of the woman who died of cancer 5 years after her husband lost his job. The recurring story about the dog on the roof. Harry Reid's "I heard Romney fiddled his taxes illegally" and more.
People aren't buying the Medicare scare. They are buying that Obamatax will take a huge chunk of funding from Medicare.
Even though the press has been very friendly to Obama for 6 years he is avoiding it like the plague. He is now focusing on giving interviews to the likes of People, ET, local radio and other puff venues where he is asked such hardhitting questions as "If you could have a superpower, what would you want it to be?" (Answer: To be able to speak another language. Speak, not understand)
Romney agreed to a prime time interview on MSNBC. Obama wants to send Biden.
The official Demmie position is that Senate and House candidates who do not want to come to the convention are excused. That's how toxic Obama is on the hustings.
He has been having trouble filling even small venues like HS gymns for a month or two now and today we have this: “Our focus right now is on exciting our supporters and winning over undecided voters and the smaller and medium-size events are the best venue to accomplish that because the president can closely engage with the crowd." (campaign spokeswoman, Jen Psaki)
The AFL-CIO has said, officially, that they are sitting this presidential election out. They will devote their efforts to down ticket races. That is a huge loss, not just in money but in prestige and available "volunteers"
Many black churches, which are important influences in the black community, are upset about his position on gay marriage. Many non-churched blacks as well. This will probably not cause them to vote Romney in large numbers but may cause them to stay home in large numbers.
He stood up the NAACP while Romney went to their convention. A lot of blacks find that insulting. Not enough to vote for Romney but perhaps enough not to vote for Obama.
Obama is a sitting president and the best he can do is basically even in the polls against Romney/Ryan?
If you look at the polls, which show Obama about even, there are even more problems. Most heavily oversample democrats. Many sample registered instead of likely voters. This skews the poll results. Obama may be doing much worse than even.
The Bradley Effect may also be skewing the poll numbers. People may be unwilling to say that they do not plan not to vote for Obama.
If you look at the registration/deregistration numbers (let me know if you want me to post them) Repos are gaining heavily while demmies are losing heavily.
The above list is not comprehensive and is not in any particular order. It is some of the reasons I think Obama is deep in the dumper. It is some of the reasons I think he could lose really big. Probably not Mondale big, Walter was one of a kind. But perhaps.