False Analogy: Why the 2012 Campaign is Nothing Like 2004

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Bludgeon
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False Analogy: Why the 2012 Campaign is Nothing Like 2004

Postby Bludgeon » Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:35 pm

Down at The New Republic, they have apparently decided to pay at least one of their writers to pull his head out of the sand and report on the state of the election as it is. This is what he came up with:

The New Republic wrote:The emerging conventional wisdom among many Democrats takes the form of two equations: 2012 = 2004, and Bain = Swift Boats. There’s also a supporting narrative: The negative campaign against John Kerry fatally weakened his candidacy, securing the victory of an incumbent who could not have won based on his own record. And so, the idea goes, a president whose performance the public doesn’t much like can power his way to a narrow, less than pretty win by eviscerating his challenger.

But the evidence in favor of all of these propositions is remarkably thin. The basic structure of the 2004 campaign differed fundamentally from the one we’re now enduring. The available evidence suggests that even in the short-term, the attacks on Romney have been measurably less successful than were those on Kerry. And Obama’s supporters seem to have forgotten that the reason Bush prevailed was because enough Americans ended up approving of his record and leadership in the areas they cared about the most.

In 2012, there is a single dominant issue—the economy. The people are trying to decide whether Obama has managed our economic challenges well enough to deserve another four years and, if not, whether Romney’s economic experience and plans make him an acceptable alternative.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/105339/fa ... thing-2004

The analysis is eerily similar to a crude set of trends and observations more commonly referred to as "the facts on the ground." Should we behead him at the guillotine now, or after the election?

pjbogart
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Re: False Analogy: Why the 2012 Campaign is Nothing Like 200

Postby pjbogart » Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:55 pm

Mental masturbation. Bain = Swiftboats? Bain is Mitt Romney's record. The Swiftboat Veterans for Truth (sic!) were a group of men who lied through their teeth about knowing and serving with John Kerry despite never having met him before.

Democrats are asking actual questions about Romney's tenure with Bain Capital. Republicans slapped purple bandaids on their faces in a juvenile and offensive effort to belittle John Kerry's military service.

And Republicans' tiresome victimhood schtick is getting super old. Oh, poor Mitt Romney, having to endure such vicious attacks! And Republicans were playing so nicely until that evil Obama started saying negative things about Romney. They've been trying so hard to cooperate on legislation and always avoided saying anything personal about the President (out of respect for the office, no doubt) but Obama is just such a divisive guy. He's engaging in class warfare!

Whatever, dude.


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