Egypt - depressing

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Huckleby
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Egypt - depressing

Postby Huckleby » Fri May 25, 2012 9:36 pm

I don't know if anybody cares about the situation in Egypt, but what a downer.

The two groups in Egypt with any organization are the Muslim Brotherhood and the old military regime. Everybody else is running around like chickens with heads cut off (an old middle eastern expression.) The voices of democracy and modernity couldn't unite behind a single candidate in their first round of presidential elections.

The bottom line is all this hoopla about an arab spring has resulted in a runoff between a hardline Islamicist (from conservative wing within Muslim Brotherhood) and some general from the last dictatorship. Hurray.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Cornbread » Sat May 26, 2012 7:33 pm

Huckleby wrote:I don't know if anybody cares about the situation in Egypt, but what a downer.


With individual freedom comes responsibility. Some of the safest places on the planet are under military dictatorships where the government/state has total control. Look at the prisoners/forced residents kept in cuba--total state control of everything, no freedoms, but 'safe'.
Vietnam is the same--total government/state control, so now very safe, but no individual freedom.

Unlike the above, egypt is sort of like iraq--sort of. The toppling of the dictator in iraq was followed (a little later) by the implementation of a parliamentary system, so that's a win for not only them, but the whole middle east.

Which brings up your subject--egypt. The people living under dictatorships in the ME see how good the US liberation of Iraq turned out, so now they want to be free, like the Iraqi people.
That changed the whole world--for the better.

The brotherhood has been organized in fighting the government, so they are better organized from the getgo. This is why they can appear to be more powerful than they really are. I'm tempted to bring up the organization of government unions here in trying to topple the duly elected governor and well, I'll just not.

So now, it'll just be up to the egyptians to see just how much they want individual freedoms.

Oh, and look at syria. (can some grammar nanny come around behind me and help me with capitalization?). Syrians looked across their border at iraq and wanted what the iraqis have.

Now if syria becomes free like iraq has--that will TRULY change the world for the better. (this is why iran is so heavily invested in keeping syria dictatorial).

Let's concentrate on freedom in our own hemisphere.
We need to free cubans! Basta fidel!

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Huckleby » Sat May 26, 2012 7:57 pm

Cornbread wrote: The people living under dictatorships in the ME see how good the US liberation of Iraq turned out, so now they want to be free, like the Iraqi people.
You definitely are offering a minority opinion there, but I happen to think you are mostly right. There are contradictions: people in Iran and the Arab world are also appalled by the bloody war that Iraq went through, and they don't see the U.S. as liberators. The U.S. is at a very low point of public opinion in middle east.

Cornbread wrote:The brotherhood has been organized in fighting the government, so they are better organized from the get go. This is why they can appear to be more powerful than they really are.

Ya, this is right. The brotherhood isn't monolithic, they ran two presidential candidates. Unfortunately, the more moderate Brotherhood candidate split votes with the non-sectarian moderate candidate favored by the democratic "revolutionaries." The two moderates actually garnered about 40% of the vote! Shit.

So the two winners represent the past (a Mubarak crony) and a conservative Islamist.

Cornbread wrote:So now, it'll just be up to the egyptians to see just how much they want individual freedoms.
With all the frightening violence, you can't blame people for leaning to law-and-order candidates.
I guess now the question is, which of the two candidates, as bad as they are, will be more likely to at least allow free elections in the future? Anybody's guess.

Cornbread wrote:Syrians looked across their border at iraq and wanted what the iraqis have.
I wouldn't work this theory too hard. Syria had 2 million refugees from Iraq who are only now returning in large numbers.

If you want to talk about DIRECT influence, I would say the Iran revolt, even though unsuccessful, got the Arab spring rolling in Tunisia and Egypt. I think the Iraq fledgling democracy might have had some influence in getting the IRanians into the streets.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby pjbogart » Sat May 26, 2012 8:44 pm

Huck, have you ever heard the expression "a smile on a dog?" You're going through Cornbread's post inserting your own intelligence into his blithering inanity, somehow seeing sense and reason where there is none. The people of the Middle East want to be just like Iraq? Is that some sort of joke? You're conversing with a person who has a head full of opinions but hasn't seen a fact since he was fired from Chess King for stealing fashionable duds.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby DCB » Sun May 27, 2012 11:34 am

Huckleby wrote:I don't know if anybody cares about the situation in Egypt, but what a downer.

OK, I agree with most of your assessment. But they did have a reasonably clean and fair election, just a year after getting rid of a dictator. Meanwhile, Syria is still fighting a bloody civil war. So I'm seeing the glass half-full.

The results in Egypt show that having an established organization can be more important than the issues. Let's hope that the progressives there can get their shit together before the next election.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Beaver » Sun May 27, 2012 2:02 pm

Yes they replace the old dictator with a new dictator. That's how those countries work.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Huckleby » Sun May 27, 2012 2:39 pm

DCB wrote:
Huckleby wrote:I don't know if anybody cares about the situation in Egypt, but what a downer.

OK, I agree with most of your assessment. But they did have a reasonably clean and fair election, just a year after getting rid of a dictator. Meanwhile, Syria is still fighting a bloody civil war. So I'm seeing the glass half-full.

The results in Egypt show that having an established organization can be more important than the issues. Let's hope that the progressives there can get their shit together before the next election.


After thinking about it some more, I'm seeing the half-full side too. Corrections can be made in future elections when the progressives learn their lesson from this fiasco and get organized. (It's pathetic that progressive-ish candidates garner 40% of vote and don't advance a candidate to runoff.)

I guess there are two bottom lines:
1) Will progressives have an enivironment where they can freely organize?
2) Will democracy continue, or will this be the Islamic one man, one vote, one time situation like happened in Algeria?

I didn't mind the Islamacists capturing 60% of the parliament, since most of them were moderate, and the moderates seemed sincere in intention to form coalition with secular parties. But now a conservative Islamicist (likely) wins the presidency.

I haven't been this nervous since a papist captured the U.S. presidency in 1960.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Henry Vilas » Sun May 27, 2012 2:47 pm

Huckleby wrote:I haven't been this nervous since a papist captured the U.S. presidency in 1960.

You're kidding... right?

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Huckleby » Sun May 27, 2012 2:52 pm

I didn't even know Kennedy was Catholic until he got shot and the nuns started bawling.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Cornbread » Sun May 27, 2012 3:26 pm

Huckleby wrote:
Cornbread wrote: The people living under dictatorships in the ME see how good the US liberation of Iraq turned out, so now they want to be free, like the Iraqi people.
You definitely are offering a minority opinion there,

I am only a minority.....here. lmao!!!!
A lot of people say the parlimentary system is the most representative form of governance. Iraq has that form of governing.
I do find it hard to put forth that people living in believe that the people in syria, lebanon, iran, saudi arabia, yemen, somalia, sudan, eritreia, would prefer to live under the conditions they live in rather than in a free and parlimentary system like Iraq has.

The liberation of Iraq started the present day prairie fire in that region. History will look down that obama was either frozen in indecision or vacationing and/or too caught up in hating israel to help out he Iranian people when they rose up. Sad, sad day for the free world.

but I happen to think you are mostly right.

So far, so good. :D
Dictators have been falling like camels. That part of the world is notorious for being "tribal", thus ungovernable. But other people in that region see that people just like them can indeed live with others (unlike them) and be free.

Wanna know what's really funny? If you live in Iraq, you can have a cell phone, internet, etc. In cuba? Dictator fidel's brother (now running that family owned island) has decided SOME cell phones can be allowed to be had by his slaves, but only members of "the party" and of course, all monitored.

People can leave Iraq. Can people leave cuba?

There are contradictions:

Yes there are. People can indeed be proud. No one likes to be governed by an outside force until they collect their fecal matter enough to do it themselves as that shows them as being weak, incompetent, etc. So on one hand, Iraqis want the US to leave, but on the other, they know that they needed us to help them until they can stand on their own two feet.

As far as the rest of the ME, I discount what they think as for most of their lives they've been under the censored media--both by the state and by agenda driven journalists--we have the latter here and old europe is infested with them.

I don't care what others still living in oppression think about those that are now free.

Cornbread wrote:The brotherhood isn't monolithic

That's a tough one. Various tribes/segments can unite in the face of who they see as being a common enemy, but once that enemy is gone, then what? This is why I find is so darned funny when gays/leftists march in protests with the islamist sympathizers in london--if the islamists ever got any power, the gays would be the first people they'd have hanged/stoned.

I have a friend from egypt, a REAL African American (not the fake PC ones) and I can touch bases with him, but it'll be a few days as I've got a whole lot on my plate at the moment.

The two moderates actually garnered about 40% of the vote! Shit.

If some hardcore islamist gets power, there'll be more protests as egypt has been westernized for a long time. They won't want to ditch a benevelont dictator for a less benevolent group of mini-dictators. That's what happened when carter sold out iran, but that's another sad story.

Gotta go.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Cornbread » Sun May 27, 2012 3:30 pm

pjbogart wrote:Huck....You're conversing with a person who...

If you choose to not discuss things with others, then that is your choice. But you begging others, scolding others for doing so makes you look, well, really silly. But I know that's how the stereotypical leftist is, so you can't help it. The leftists I know and yak with aren't like that, so why don't you go and beg for groupthink on another thread so we can discuss this without you?

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby DCB » Sun May 27, 2012 5:12 pm

Cornbread wrote:Dictators have been falling like camels.

And the people have been rising like the sand!

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Henry Vilas » Sun May 27, 2012 5:16 pm

The U.S. policy towards the Middle East can be summed up with this question: What is our oil doing under your soil?

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby Huckleby » Sun May 27, 2012 5:49 pm

Henry Vilas wrote:The U.S. policy towards the Middle East can be summed up with this question: What is our oil doing under your soil?

It's a lot about oil, but as we saw in Iraq, we seek no special access, let alone control of oil fields.

The question is, why are we fighting and paying for wars to protect china's access to oil? They are much more vulnerable & dependent.

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Re: Egypt - depressing

Postby pjbogart » Sun May 27, 2012 5:56 pm

Huckleby wrote:
Henry Vilas wrote:The U.S. policy towards the Middle East can be summed up with this question: What is our oil doing under your soil?

It's a lot about oil, but as we saw in Iraq, we seek no special access, let alone control of oil fields.

The question is, why are we fighting and paying for wars to protect china's access to oil? They are much more vulnerable & dependent.


Oil is a commodity, so no matter where it is or who's buying and selling, it affects our markets as well. And oil companies got plenty of access. They got what they wanted, you paid for it.


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