Obama and same-sex marriage

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Huckleby
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Thu May 10, 2012 10:33 am

rrnate wrote: * Energizes the base
* Engergizes young people (different than the old-reliables)
* Draws a nice line in the sand
* Adds a little substance to the "hope/change" deal

all true

rrnate wrote:Let's face it - there aren't a lot of people who feel strongly anti-gay marriage that will end up voting for Obama anyway.

not true, in a tight election, the number of people moved by this issue could be significant. There are many religous, working class people whose votes are up for grabs, particularly in critical swing states.

rrnate wrote:I think the reports of Obama's advisors being divided over this are meaninglness - how many times do you think they all agree on anything?

OK, but theory that this week unfolded as a coordinated, clever strategy is not credible. Biden blew Obama's cover is what happened.

Average Joe
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Average Joe » Thu May 10, 2012 10:48 am

Huckleby wrote:Biden blew Obama's cover is what happened.


What makes you so certain Biden blew Obama's cover? It wouldn't surprise me in the least if it eventually comes out that Biden was given a pass to endorse marriage equality as a trial balloon to see if the Right acts as predictably as they anticipated.

Average Joe
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Average Joe » Thu May 10, 2012 11:14 am

Huckleby wrote:OK, but theory that this week unfolded as a coordinated, clever strategy is not credible.


Rah-Roh...Story coming out that Romney was involved in high school bullying a gay student...still think this is all a coinkydink?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... print.html

John Lauber, a soft-spoken new student one year behind Romney, was perpetually teased for his nonconformity and presumed homosexuality. Now he was walking around the all-boys school with bleached-blond hair that draped over one eye, and Romney wasn’t having it.

“He can’t look like that. That’s wrong. Just look at him!” an incensed Romney told Matthew Friedemann, his close friend in the Stevens Hall dorm, according to Friedemann’s recollection. Mitt, the teenaged son of Michigan Gov. George Romney, kept complaining about Lauber’s look, Friedemann recalled.

A few days later, Friedemann entered Stevens Hall off the school’s collegiate quad to find Romney marching out of his own room ahead of a prep school posse shouting about their plan to cut Lauber’s hair. Friedemann followed them to a nearby room where they came upon Lauber, tackled him and pinned him to the ground. As Lauber, his eyes filling with tears, screamed for help, Romney repeatedly clipped his hair with a pair of scissors.

Huckleby
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Thu May 10, 2012 12:08 pm

Average Joe wrote: It wouldn't surprise me in the least if it eventually comes out that Biden was given a pass to endorse marriage equality as a trial balloon

You can see this was not true by how unprepared Jay Carney was to deal with the deluge of criticism.

And it makes no sense at all from cold, political calculations. The Dems hope to win NC, for instance, which just voted-down gay marriage by 20+ percentage points.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby pjbogart » Thu May 10, 2012 5:47 pm

Huckleby wrote:And it makes no sense at all from cold, political calculations. The Dems hope to win NC, for instance, which just voted-down gay marriage by 20+ percentage points.


Huck, I'm not sure how gay marriage will affect Obama's hopes in North Carolina, but I hardly think you should marry yourself to the 20 point spread given that it was ON THE DAY OF THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY!

It's possible that this is all a rope-a-dope, as several posters have pointed out. Romney has not been an "anti-gay" politician as best I can tell. If he joins the pitchfork wielding rabble they're just going to pull out a bunch of news clips of Romney being pro-civil unions and pro-gay rights. It kind of plays to the etch-a-sketch theme and puts Romney in a lose-lose position.

Huckleby
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Thu May 10, 2012 6:26 pm

There are risks for Romney, sure. I don't expect either candidate to talk a lot about the issue.

Obama is counting on a very heavy turnout of hispanic voters in SW where he has shot at picking off some states. Hispanics, like blacks, are very anti-gay, sadly.

One can spin this either way, nothing is certain. (Which is not to say the risks are equal on both sides, IMO) I will accept the reality and hope for the best. I'm certainly glad that I don't have to cringe anymore when questions are asked about OBama's position.


The good news is that the Republicans have poisoned the well with gays, blacks and hispanics, so future looks grim for them.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby gargantua » Thu May 10, 2012 9:01 pm

Huckleby wrote:Obama is counting on a very heavy turnout of hispanic voters in SW where he has shot at picking off some states. Hispanics, like blacks, are very anti-gay, sadly.


In spite of that, I don't think that likely Obama voters will change their minds just for this reason. How the economy performs between now and November is a much more important factor. I expect it to start to improve a bit more rapidly than it has been. If that happens, Obama wins. If it pokes along like it's been doing, it'll be close. If it takes a turn for the worse, he's toast.

Huckleby
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Thu May 10, 2012 9:27 pm

gas prices have stabilized, that helps. economy is likely to be like now - weak recovery.

gay marriage is just a small factor. But election looks to be decided on razor thin margin. Obama won 53% when he had wind at his back, everything in his favor. Gonna be a real fight this time.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby DCB » Fri May 11, 2012 9:33 am

gargantua wrote:
Huckleby wrote:Obama is counting on a very heavy turnout of hispanic voters in SW where he has shot at picking off some states. Hispanics, like blacks, are very anti-gay, sadly.


In spite of that, I don't think that likely Obama voters will change their minds just for this reason. How the economy performs between now and November is a much more important factor.

Since Obama hasn't actually proposed anything concrete, his comments don't amount to much. The only people who are going to make a big deal about it are
* the homophobes, who aren't going to vote for him anyway
* self-described liberals who "of course are in favor of equal rights" but who endlessly worry about "how will this affect the moderate/Hispanic/soccer mom vote".

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby snoqueen » Fri May 11, 2012 10:02 am

I think Obama's "coming out" could help with the youth vote, which is large. If he makes a few other gestures toward younger people -- say, regarding student loans -- he could get a better turnout and save the election for himself.

But anything he says has to be backed up with action.

Conveniently, the horrible story about Romney's bullying a gay kid when they were students will hit home for many. While all of us did stupid things in high school or college, few were that sadistic.

It draws a nice line, I agree.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby FJD » Fri May 11, 2012 10:38 am

Huckleby wrote:But election looks to be decided on razor thin margin. Obama won 53% when he had wind at his back, everything in his favor. Gonna be a real fight this time.


Something to think about, but what ever else it effects, Obama just made a fairly courageous statement, based on reasoned convictions. That will probably count more to independents than his actual position. Can anyone think of an example of Romney doing the same?

And I know you are so worried about the effect on his election chances, but he's the leader of the country. Part of his job is to lead. That doesn't mean taking a position that more people support. That sometimes means stating what you think is right, explaining why and working to change the minds of those who disagree. I don't think it was nearly as important to show the LBGTQ community his support as it was to make this a topic that the country does discuss and think about more rationally.

Sure he isn't going to convince right wing religious conservatives (and they weren't going to listen to or vote for him anyway), but he might make some of his supporters question their own bigotry.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby rabble » Fri May 11, 2012 11:11 am

His campaign spokeswoman, Andrea Saul, said in a statement that “anyone who knows Mitt Romney knows that he doesn’t have a mean-spirited bone in his body. The stories of fifty years ago seem exaggerated and off base and Governor Romney has no memory of participating in these incidents.”


Well, that should put a stop to all that "Obama went to a Muslim School!" and "Obama eats puppies!" caterwauling. Romney says if the stuff happened fifty years ago and he can't remember it anyways, it doesn't count.

So we can all quit talking about stuff that happened to either candidate before they reached the age of consent.

Right?

Huckleby
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Sat May 12, 2012 6:17 pm

DCB wrote:The only people who are going to make a big deal about it are
* the homophobes, who aren't going to vote for him anyway
* self-described liberals who "of course are in favor of equal rights" but who endlessly worry about "how will this affect the moderate/Hispanic/soccer mom vote".


:lol: In other words, somebody who thinks analitically about the issue, and comes up with uncomfortable conclusion is a "self-described" liberal, i.e. a heretic.

The rumors of the death of political correctness are exaggerated.

Huckleby
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Sat May 12, 2012 6:25 pm

Francis Di Domizio wrote: Obama just made a fairly courageous statement, based on reasoned convictions. That will probably count more to independents than his actual position. Can anyone think of an example of Romney doing the same?


Yes, it's possible that between now and election day, Obama will get a net boost from taking a principled stand. The hope is realistic.

Gallop just did a poll asking whether likely voters are more or less likely to vote for Obama based on his gay marriage announcement. 13% more likely, 26% less likely, the remainder unchanged. This doesn't mean too much, except among independents, 23% claim less likely to vote for Obama. Not reassuring, and one wonders about numbers in swing states.

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012 ... 23212.html

I'm not going to lose too much sleep over this issue, the risk cuts both ways and is impossible to know for sure. I say keep it real, though.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby pjbogart » Sun May 13, 2012 6:50 am

I find that article a bit irritating, Huck. The same poll was posted by pollingreport.com without the editorializing and I think you'd find that a bit less concerning.

Obama's gay marriage gamble

I hope you realize that "less likely to vote for Obama" is not a sampling of undecided voters. If Meade tells you that Obama's gay marriage gamble makes him "less likely to vote for Obama" it's really not worth a fart in the wind. The one thing you might be able to take from the poll is that people who oppose gay marriage oppose it more strongly than people who support it, but that should hardly come as a surprise.

A healthy majority of Americans (60%) say that gay marriage will not affect their vote. And gay marriage is still supported by 51% and opposed by 45%. Obviously those numbers change significantly in conservative states like North Carolina, especially if you conduct the poll as people are voting in the Republican primary.


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