Obama and same-sex marriage

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wack wack
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby wack wack » Tue May 08, 2012 2:34 pm

Francis Di Domizio wrote:I don't know what children you normally spend time with, but most young children I know, haven't learned to hate people for petty things like race, gender or sexual preference. That kind of stupidity is learned as they grow older. Usually it's passed on by stupid adults. I know it's hard for some liberals to admit, but not all Democrats are that enlightened.


I'm sorry I wasn't more clear. The "folly of childhood" I refer to extends into early adulthood, and not only includes but is largely because of the influence of (often stupid) adults. The "folly" as I see it is not the behavior of the child, but the behavior that surrounds the child.

I think we largely agree.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Stella_Guru » Wed May 09, 2012 6:44 am

Mean Scenester wrote: Then the election comes and the POTUS finds himself having to govern with a gaggle of assholes in the legislative branch. Political realities are a bitch, ain't they?

Yeah really man, not to mention all the corporatists, Wall St. errand boys, warmongers, free trade cheerleaders, labor haters, school privatizers, Monsanto puppets, job exporters, tax avoiders, and Bush retreads he stacked his administration with.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Ducatista » Wed May 09, 2012 3:20 pm

Mean Scenester wrote:Obama knows it's only a matter of time before the gay community achieves civil rights parity, but he's playing it politically safe.

Not anymore. Obama backs gay marriage.

nutria
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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby nutria » Wed May 09, 2012 4:24 pm

Ducatista wrote:Not anymore. Obama backs gay marriage.


OK, this is tough, but here it goes. This was the last straw. My opposite-marriage was on weak footing before, and can't handle this attack. I'll be filing for opposite-divorce the minute I get a hold of my lawyer.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Wed May 09, 2012 4:29 pm

bdog wrote:Why doesn't he take a stand now?

Because he has the backbone of a gummi worm.


Such bs. I don't want the leader of my political party to take positions that significantly damage his/her chances of re-election just to prove they have "backbone." It's fine & easy for members of congress to be pure, but not the President. What if a demonstration of erectness extends conservative control of the Supreme Court for 20 years? Is that worth it?

Fuck. Obama getting cornered into making this announcement is nothing to celebrate. It may work-out OK, but a lot of smart people think it could suppress turnout in key sectors. I would have prefered his coming-out party over Thanksgiving.

BTW, real backbone is making unpopular decisions within your own party. For instance, when Obama surged 30,000 troops into Afghanistan, did you praise his backbone?

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Wed May 09, 2012 4:38 pm

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/ ... maneuvers/

Douhat, a moderate/conservative columnist for NY Times had interesting piece on gay marriage today. I imagine his agenda was to taunt and damage Obama for his vascillation. Of course now that Obama has followed his advice, Douhat won't give Obama credit.

Douhat makes correct point, I believe, that as of today, being for gay marriage is a political loser in battle for electoral college majority. Mabye in 4 years that will flip.

I'd say that Joe Biden pulled another boner, and Obama deftly made the best of the situation.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby bdog » Wed May 09, 2012 4:43 pm

Good job Mr. President.

As VP Biden might say, "this is a big fucking deal!"

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Henry Vilas » Wed May 09, 2012 4:49 pm

Prior to the North Carolina vote on a state constitutional amendment to outlaw gay marriage Obama stayed silent, since his endorsement wouldn't change the outcome. Instead it would become fodder for the presidential race. So he talked about "evolving" and had Biden and others in his cabinet speak instead. As soon as the North Carolina vote came in, Obama came out (so to speak).

It will take a U.S. Supreme Court ruling to have a national policy. Let's hope Obams is reelected and can appoint justices who want to recognize the rights of all who live in our nation.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Elrond » Wed May 09, 2012 8:22 pm

It was just getting to be too big of an embarrassment for the administration, especially after the repeal of DADT. While it might depress turnout in some areas of the base, I think Obama had to pull something like this to prove his liberal bona fides. I don't doubt that he supported this all along, but was too cautious. Better late than never.

Ross Douthat is great at sideways apologetics for the Republican party line, and nothing he says should be taken in any other way.

I see this as a sign of confidence that Romney has no serious 'culture war' ammunition, and that the Obama campaign is less worried than they might be.

It's also worthwhile to consider the recent NYT Mag article about Obama's plunging financial support from Wall Street. Where, instead, is the DNC looking for money? Hollywood, which, stereotypically or not, has an interest in this issue.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Wed May 09, 2012 10:29 pm

Elrond wrote: I think Obama had to pull something like this to prove his liberal bona fides.
Hardly. The last thing Obama needs is to appear more liberal in the contested states of Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Nevada.

Elrond wrote:I don't doubt that he supported this all along, but was too cautious. Better late than never.
No, better later than never, better later than now.
By what measure has Obama suffered politically from a cautious position? You are not viewing this with a cold, calculating eye, you are projecting your personal satisfaction at Obama's public stance.

This premature announcement could easily set-back the cause of gay rights. Imagine if conservatives capture the white house, and add two more conservative supreme court justices.

On the other hand, there are plausible scenerio's where this could help Obama, for instance the Republicans could overplay their hand, change subject to social issues instead of economy. But I think most analysts see more potential downside for Obama.

Obama made announcement because he was cornered.

Elrond wrote:Ross Douthat is great at sideways apologetics for the Republican party line, and nothing he says should be taken in any other way.

I largely agree about the first part, but that doesn't mean he isn't insightful, or is always wrong. Dems don't have complete monopoly on wisdom. Blinders are for the tea party.

Elrond wrote:I see this as a sign of confidence that Romney has no serious 'culture war' ammunition, and that the Obama campaign is less worried than they might be.
State-by-state voting patterns suggest that you are mistaken, gay marriage is not yet a winning issue. The 50-50 national polling split does not hold in swing states. And I heard today that actual voting is about 7 percent more anti-gay marriage than people admit in polls. Anti-gay state referendums have a 30-0 record.

I hope the announcement will have negligible effect.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Igor » Wed May 09, 2012 10:45 pm

Huckleby wrote: State-by-state voting patterns suggest that you are mistaken, gay marriage is not yet a winning issue. The 50-50 national polling split does not hold in swing states. And I heard today that actual voting is about 7 percent more anti-gay marriage than people admit in polls.


While gay marriage may not be a winning issue, I think that there are several areas in which changes could have been made for some time. End of life decisions and inheritance are two items that come to mind where I would bet that there is a fair amount of Republican support - I could be wrong.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Thu May 10, 2012 7:12 am

Igor wrote:End of life decisions and inheritance are two items that come to mind where I would bet that there is a fair amount of Republican support - I could be wrong.
When you break things down to specifics, Dems often have winning hand. True for gay rights, heath care, many issues. But problem is that the battles get framed as tribal, existential, all-or-nothing fights. Therefore, you see that civil unions are banned in constitutions of WI and North Carolina even though public support is solid for civil unions.

Despite setbacks here and there, gay rights are marching forward, it's just a matter of time. (Which is why I was fine with the big O having his epiphany after Nov.)

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Average Joe » Thu May 10, 2012 7:35 am

What this does is it prevents Romney from softening the ultra conservative stances he took in the primary in order to keep the severe conservative wing of the Republican Party fired up, which he needs. However, the ultra conservative cultural stances turn off far more independents than a pro-marriage equality stance does for Obama. And it fires up the left base. The peril for Romney now if he does tone down the ultra-conservative cultural positions is that he risks losing the far right base, which is already suspicious of him. And if he does wage a campaign on cultural issues he loses independent moderates as his person likability numbers are already in the basement. Score a rope-a-dope for Obama.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby Huckleby » Thu May 10, 2012 8:02 am

Average Joe wrote:What this does is it prevents Romney from softening the ultra conservative stances he took in the primary

Sure, there are some positive scenarios for Obama, the overall outcome is not certain.

Average Joe wrote: Score a rope-a-dope for Obama.

Not a chance. The administration did not go through the acute embarassment of the past week's fumbling as part of some clever plan. Reports are that Obama's advisor's were deeply divided over the wisdom of making his announcement. There is far more risk than potential reward. But maybe lemonade will be made out of the lemon.

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Re: Obama and same-sex marriage

Postby rrnate » Thu May 10, 2012 10:25 am

I'd guess it's going to end up being positive politically. Here's what it does:

* Energizes the base
* Engergizes young people (different than the old-reliables)
* Draws a nice line in the sand
* Adds a little substance to the "hope/change" deal

Let's face it - there aren't a lot of people who feel strongly anti-gay marriage that will end up voting for Obama anyway. It's going to help him shore up support amongst the youngs and the undecideds and also gain a little campaign momentum.

I think the reports of Obama's advisors being divided over this are meaninglness - how many times do you think they all agree on anything?


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