Right. When I first heard about this poll on fox news, I assumed it was bogus for the reason you mention. But I looked online to see if there was anything there, and it does show that self-identified independents are twice as likely to be moved against Obama because of this decision.pjbogart wrote:I hope you realize that "less likely to vote for Obama" is not a sampling of undecided voters. If Meade tells you
I do appreciate your and others arguments on how this issue will play out. Outcome is uncertain, you may be proven correct. But the evidence is stronger, imo, that Obama will be hurt by the decision in conservative-leaning swing states.
I expect the actual behavior will be 95% or higher. The 5% or 1% who do care deeply enough to affect their vote is what matters.pjbogart wrote:A healthy majority of Americans (60%) say that gay marriage will not affect their vote.
The polls in NC are strongly against gay marriage, regardless of that vote. (BTW,I won't dismiss a 22% margin vote, even if it was held during Republican primary and on Reagan's birthday. Gay marriage referendums draw huge numbers.)pjbogart wrote:And gay marriage is still supported by 51% and opposed by 45%. Obviously those numbers change significantly in conservative states like North Carolina, especially if you conduct the poll as people are voting in the Republican primary.
Don't believe for a second that Americans support gay marriage 51% to 45%. (I have not heard that optimistic poll result, btw) You find out what people really think when they vote. A national poll means ZERO, marriage is a state issue.
Regarding pres politics, we have an electoral college, and most states are locked-up blue or red. To the extent that polls matter, state-polls in conservative-leaning swing states like Florida, NC, Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio are all we should pay attention to.
The country is not close politically to adopting gay marriage from sea-to-shining-sea. We are a decade or decades away. FOCUS ON THE STATE LEVEL VOTING. That is where the truth comes out. So far the score there is 30-0. Granted, the ground is shifting, gay marriage is inevitable. Yet even in liberal Minnesota, the issue hangs very much in the balance.
From the standpoint of political advantage, Obama is almost certainly several years premature, and he will be hurt in the electoral college battle.