Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.
Meade
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:36 am

56.0%

Meade
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:23 pm

58.1%

Meade
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:51 pm

57.5%

Stu Levitan
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Stu Levitan » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:11 pm

Meade wrote:Stu, do you have evidence of speculators "gaming the system"? Or just hearsay and your worried imagination?



Nut graf: "As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 buying up Romney shares and pushing the Republican candidate’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted a few minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are currently back at around 41 percent."

Full story here.

Not that I care all that much about your obsessions, Lawrence, but why ARE you so obsessed with InTrade? Do you think it has any actual predictive value? Or are you just terribly bored and easily amused? I mean, really -- nine posts in one day??

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby bdog » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:18 pm

Stu responded to Meade's intrade post.

I think we need a thread on what the spider's prey does when exposed to different drugs.

Stu Levitan
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Stu Levitan » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:20 pm

Interesting analysis of InTrade and other election prediction markets from Nate Silver.

bdog
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby bdog » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:24 pm

Kurt already posted that...

Meade
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:17 pm

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fennel
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby fennel » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:29 pm

42.97786%

Stu Levitan
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Stu Levitan » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:44 pm

bdog wrote:Kurt already posted that...


Where? Nate didn't even post it until 5:30 PM today.

Meade
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:41 am

HERE

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Meade
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:19 pm

62.4%

This is a huge swing toward Obama. Manipulation? Ask Stu.

nutria
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby nutria » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:22 pm

Meade wrote:62.4%

This is a huge swing toward Obama. Manipulation? Ask Stu.


Actually, it's legitimate Intrade rape, although it is a gift from god.

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Stebben84 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:31 pm

President Obama to visit North Korea before end of first term in office

2%

Meade
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:45 pm

64.0%


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