How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

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Huckleby
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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Huckleby » Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:05 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/03/world ... bluff.html

It seems that Obama has shifted policy, signaled that U.S. will support military action to keep Iran nuclear bomb free.

I think what happenned is that Obama is backed into a corner politically. If Israel attacks Iran in coming months, which seems quite possible, he will be forced to make a full-throated display of support. So he might as well collect the political advantage of appearing strong and consistent now.

What do you think about Iran getting nuclear weapons? I personally don't care. They are no more nuts than the Pakistanis or North Koreans. And I don't blame Iranians for seeking nuclear weapons, they of all people need the protection from attack.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby ilikebeans » Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:28 pm

Huckleby wrote:What do you think about Iran getting nuclear weapons? I personally don't care. They are no more nuts than the Pakistanis or North Koreans. And I don't blame Iranians for seeking nuclear weapons, they of all people need the protection from attack.

Yep. Iran can get them all they want, but if they were to actually use one offensively, we (and most of the rest of the world) would come down on them like a bag of hammers.

A pre-emptive attack is going to be disastrous, and being in bed with Israel is going to drag us into yet another unwanted quagmire.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Detritus » Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:31 pm

Iran has learned the twin lessons of North Korea and Iraq: The U.S. will not fuck with a country that has nuclear weapons. All the fulmination about chemical and biological weapons notwithstanding, nothing really beats nukes.

I don't know that Obama has really shifted his policy. I suspect the issue is not whether to support military action so much as whether the time had come or not.

As for whether Iran should have the bomb or not, well, that's not particularly germane, is it? Almost every country with nuclear weapons has managed not to use them in war ever since, oh, August 1945. I'm not particularly happy to see them proliferate, but I don't have a lot of clout in Tehran these days--not since the gold krugerrands ran out.

Huckleby
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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Huckleby » Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:38 pm

Detritus wrote:I don't know that Obama has really shifted his policy. I suspect the issue is not whether to support military action so much as whether the time had come or not.

I'm sure Obama NEVER approves of Israel attacking Iran, under any conditions. But he is holding a weak poker hand. The public relations has shifted, which is critical part of the policy.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Crockett » Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:57 pm

Ron Paul 2012

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby ilikebeans » Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:00 pm

It's true that Ahmadinejad is a psychopath and a puppet of the clerics, the ultra-conservative repressive rulers of the country.

However, in every documentary I've seen on current Iranian society (which, granted, concentrated on some of the larger cities), the average citizen tends to be relatively educated and pro-western, at least compared with surrounding countries.

I firmly believe that, left alone, Iran will eventually experience its own liberalization and secularization over time. A preemptive attack would immediately erase any goodwill the rank and file have towards the west and U.S. and set the cause back a few more decades.

We support an attack at our own long-term peril.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Huckleby » Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:02 pm

ilikebeans wrote:It's true that Ahmadinejad is a psychopath and a puppet of the clerics, the ultra-conservative repressive rulers of the country.

I'm not so current on what's going on there, but actually Ahmadinejad is in a brutal power struggle with the clerics. There has been a split. I heard on news recently that a lot of the parliment candidates allied with A. were not allowed to run in elections today. A. has strength among one wing of the security services, I forget which.
I don't see A. as a psychpath. I see him and the clerics as competing mafia factions.

ilikebeans wrote:However, in every documentary I've seen on current Iranian society (which, granted, concentrated on some of the larger cities), the average citizen tends to be relatively educated and pro-western, at least compared with surrounding countries.

I firmly believe that, left alone, Iran will eventually experience its own liberalization and secularization over time. A preemptive attack would immediately erase any goodwill the rank and file have towards the west and U.S. and set the cause back a few more decades.

We support an attack at our own long-term peril.

I agree with what you say here. But I'm not sure what choice the U.S. has, the Israeli tail is wagging the dog because of the U.S. elections.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Rich Schultz » Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:32 pm

Glad you are so relaxed about nuclear proliferation. Are you aware that Iran going nuclear will lead to many other countries doing the same?

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Henry Vilas » Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:53 pm

Are you aware that the U.S. going nuclear has led to many other countries doing the same?

Huckleby
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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Huckleby » Sat Mar 03, 2012 2:54 pm

Rich Schultz wrote:Glad you are so relaxed about nuclear proliferation. Are you aware that Iran going nuclear will lead to many other countries doing the same?

This is possible and undesirable, but not catastrophic.
I'm not sure it would be much more dangerous in the region if Turkey & Saudi Arabia developed nuclear weapons.

Another likely scenario is that the U.S. will provide a nuclear umbrella, like NATO does for eastern european countries.

I think the great threat is a war between Israel & Iran. Hezbollah has more long range missles in Lebanon, and the last war was no picnic. A nuclear cold peace is not really worse than the dangerous standoff we have now.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Stella_Guru » Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:45 pm

ilikebeans wrote:It's true that Ahmadinejad is a psychopath and a puppet of the clerics, the ultra-conservative repressive rulers of the country.


Repressive undemocratic rulers have never been obstacles to winning American support in the past if the right interests want it. You have to hand it to our Nobel Peace Price winning President Obama. With the story about the Iranian used car salesman and the assasination plot, lying about nuclear capabilities, and threatening a nation for pledging to defend itself, he has done what Bush Boy never could. For the second time in less than a year most of the Western nations are on-board for another conquest.

Image

Huckleby
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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Huckleby » Sat Mar 03, 2012 5:01 pm

The U.S. has miltary bases in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan? That map is quite a scoop.

I agree with Stella to a degree. Threatening to attack Iran, or actually doing so, accomplishes nothing postive, given the nature of the regime there. But Iran is a nasty menance in the middle east, through its support of Assad, Hezbollah, Hamas, militias in Iraq.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby pjbogart » Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:25 am

Huckleby wrote:The U.S. has miltary bases in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan? That map is quite a scoop.


Weren't the military bases in Saudi Arabia one of the main justifications that Osama bin Laden used for 9-11? They've been there for almost 25 years now, so it's not much of a scoop.

Huckleby
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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Huckleby » Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:35 am

There aren't any military bases in Saudi Arabia.

What Osama was especially ticked about was that the infidel miltaries had troops in Saudi Arabia during Gulf War I, attacked a muslim country (Iraq & occupied Kuwait) from Saudi Arabia. The U.S. does have naval bases with some of the small gulf states.

I think the U.S. did have some physical infrastructure tucked-away in some locations in Saudi Arabia. Not sure if that is still true, and not absolutely positive my memory is correct on all this, too lazy to research it.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Postby Henry Vilas » Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:38 am

Stella's map appears to be inaccurate (or way out-of-date).

Only one U.S. base left in Saudi Arabia.

US Vacating Air Base in Pakistan Used by Drones


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