What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Please limit discussion in this area to local and state politics.
Huckleby
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 9947
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:12 pm
Location: parents' basement

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Huckleby » Sun Jun 10, 2012 8:17 am

snoqueen wrote:Elections are run on very sophisticated social engineering these days, and I think the utterly cynical Republican party has taken that engineering to extreme levels. They know not only how to divide and conquer, but also how to keep people whipped up over nothing, how to create a sense of team membership through creating a mutual enemy, and how to engage attention at a deep emotional level well beyond rational thinking. All this stuff comes from applied social and psychological research, which is available to anybody but is being used as a tool -- with the results to show it works -- by just one party.
jonnygothispen wrote:I think it's impossible to judge Wisconsin's electorate when our mainstream media and the Koch fueled political ads presents so many falsehoods as facts. The National media only parroted what the campaigns said as well. Just raw conjecture on Walker's behalf with little to no in depth analysis. Even when presented with the facts according to Wisconsin's CBO, the LFB, WSJ decided to lie and lie some more about Walker's budget.
There is a great deal of truth to both these statements. The REpublicans used excellent marketing and deceptive advertising. Conservatives control local media. But what else is new?

It's a nickle-plated certainty that whenever an election goes terribly wrong, the true believers on losing side will say, "the electorate was tricked and/or stupid. IF they only knew what I know." I notice that liberals do it a bit more, and I chock that up to the fact that liberals are a smaller part of mainstream America.

You have to account for how people vote in elections, or decide verdicts on juries, or make most decisions: they use intuition and emotion. People get a general sense of who is right, who they identify with more, and they go with it. Facts matter, but they are secondary. Mostly, people use facts and details to later justify a decision that was already made.

Walker won primarily because his message and demeanor was closer to the hearts of the WI people.

I am not saying Snoqueen & jonnygothispen are wrong, the chicanery and media moved the needle. But in a state that obsessed over a controversy for two years, you can't dismiss a big victory as a sneak attack.

Bludgeon
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 1291
Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2010 2:27 am

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Bludgeon » Sun Jun 10, 2012 8:52 am

Huckleby wrote:
snoqueen wrote:Elections are run on very sophisticated social engineering these days, and I think the utterly cynical Republican party has taken that engineering to extreme levels. They know not only how to divide and conquer, but also how to keep people whipped up over nothing, how to create a sense of team membership through creating a mutual enemy, and how to engage attention at a deep emotional level well beyond rational thinking. All this stuff comes from applied social and psychological research, which is available to anybody but is being used as a tool -- with the results to show it works -- by just one party.

You have to account for how people vote in elections, or decide verdicts on juries, or make most decisions: they use intuition and emotion. People get a general sense of who is right, who they identify with more, and they go with it. Facts matter, but they are secondary. Mostly, people use facts and details to later justify a decision that was already made.

Walker won primarily because his message and demeanor was closer to the hearts of the WI people.

I am not saying Snoqueen & jonnygothispen are wrong, the chicanery and media moved the needle. But in a state that obsessed over a controversy for two years, you can't dismiss a big victory as a sneak attack.

^^

I've said it twice, and I mean it twice: Democrats in Wisconsin are lucky they didn't end up with Tom Barrett as the governor; or Kathleen Falk for that matter. One step further, they're pretty lucky they didn't end up with any kind of recall election (D) governor. Progressives who believe everything Paul Krugman writes likely disagree. However, IMO, Feingold-progressives who care about integrity first and ideology second should be heaving a sigh of relief that they weren't stuck with a bought and sold puppet for unions, Chicago and the white house leading their party in Wisconsin.

What true blue Blues need is exactly what they got: a clean break from the Jim Doyle school of politics. Sometimes its better to lose a seat and gain an opportunity.

Barrett lost because of Doyle, Feingold lost because of Doyle, and Barrett lost again because of Doyle. As a result of Barrett losing the recall, Russ Feingold is still the state's top Democrat, a fact whose implications show, IMO, that everybody won.

narcoleptish
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 4164
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2005 1:35 am

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby narcoleptish » Sun Jun 10, 2012 9:58 am

I agree with what Bludgeon just said. I filled in the black line next to Barrett's name with a huge sigh. He's probably a nice guy but I would have felt more positive emotion voting for a houseplant.

I hope that moderate people can come to power eventually. Let the people have a couple more years of the "it's all about the budget" masquerade and we'll see where things go.

snoqueen
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 14044
Joined: Fri Feb 14, 2003 11:42 pm

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby snoqueen » Sun Jun 10, 2012 9:58 am

Let the people have a couple more years of the "it's all about the budget" masquerade and we'll see where things go.


Yep. We'll see.

I ended up no fan of Doyle, whom I regarded as a moderate Republican at best. And being generally pro-working-class I don't agree the Democrats are lucky they didn't end up with "any kind of recall election (D) governor." And that's that.

None of it makes any difference today. What I want to know now is whether Wisconsin can be returned to prosperity in parity with our neighboring midwest states. We're not there now, not in new jobs or businesses or on any other worthwhile measure I've seen. Let's check again at the end of Walker's term of office and see what worked and what didn't. We've got a fairly decent laboratory here with controls in the form of Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, maybe even Michigan.

What other measures ought to be considered in quantifying a state's prosperity? Percent of people with health care insurance? Mean income? Median income? (I vote for the latter.) New home construction? Energy efficiency rating, on average, of all dwellings? (I'd vote for the latter, again -- and getting there brings us construction jobs). Quality of drinking water? Percent of students graduating from high school, entering college, graduating from college? Quality ratings of public universities?

Pick some measures. Suggest others. Determine the baselines both in Wisconsin and in the control states. The main thing is to pick them now, not two years from now when the data can be cherry-picked. We might as well find out if this experiment actually works, now that we're part of it.

The unexpected will always be part of the equation, but that's no reason not to try and figure this out.

narcoleptish
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 4164
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2005 1:35 am

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby narcoleptish » Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:11 am

I would say that I'm pro-working-class too, but it would appear that a lot of working-class people voted for Walker so I'm fine with letting the cards fall where they may.

gargantua
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 6574
Joined: Sat Apr 13, 2002 1:30 pm
Location: Madison

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby gargantua » Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:19 am

I suggest we measure how Walker's performance stacks up against his own promises. So let's see how close he comes to the 250,000 jobs he promised now that he has a full term, and no longer has the "it's the uncertainty caused by all the recalls" excuse.

And we can compare it with per capita job growth in the surrounding states.

I thought about the extent to which the budget is balanced, but there are too many variables. A balanced budget sounds great, but if you get there by cutting aid to education by 90% for example, not so much.

Agree with earlier posters about the Jim Doyle effect. Remember the 2010 campaign.."Just like Jim Doyle, only worse!" . They could have trotted those out again and it probably still would have worked.

snoqueen
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 14044
Joined: Fri Feb 14, 2003 11:42 pm

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby snoqueen » Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:22 am

narcoleptish wrote:I would say that I'm pro-working-class too, but it would appear that a lot of working-class people voted for Walker so I'm fine with letting the cards fall where they may.


Same here. I can't fix it, you can't fix it. We just have to sit back and see if people get what they wanted. It'll be interesting.

bdog
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 3827
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 5:26 am

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby bdog » Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:30 am

Huckleby wrote:You have to account for how people vote in elections, or decide verdicts on juries, or make most decisions: they use intuition and emotion. People get a general sense of who is right, who they identify with more, and they go with it. Facts matter, but they are secondary. Mostly, people use facts and details to later justify a decision that was already made.

I agree Huck. This echoes my sentiment after the first debate: it's not what the candidates say, it's how they come off.

I like the way this thread has turned into a real discussion. Nod to Sno for being a big part of that. FWIW, I tend towards balance in these discussions. If someone is extreme, I'm extreme in return. If they're moderate, I'll be moderate as well.

Meade
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 3341
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:26 pm
Contact:

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Meade » Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:41 am

snoqueen wrote:We've got a fairly decent laboratory here with controls in the form of Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, maybe even Michigan.

Even moderately better states to use for purposes of comparing and contrasting with Wisconsin two years from today: Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, California.

peripat
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 1259
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:59 am

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby peripat » Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:49 am

So you believe Walker is driving us to bankruptcy.

Meade
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 3341
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:26 pm
Contact:

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Meade » Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:53 am

snoqueen wrote:
narcoleptish wrote:I would say that I'm pro-working-class too, but it would appear that a lot of working-class people voted for Walker so I'm fine with letting the cards fall where they may.


Same here. I can't fix it, you can't fix it. We just have to sit back and see if people get what they wanted. It'll be interesting.


I am pro working-class as well. So is Governor Walker. This 12 yr-old article, written by two very smart progressive political scholars, might interest you for purposes of comparing and contrasting. Stated goals and core values:

• If a criminal has a right to a lawyer, you have a right to a doctor. This was a great line from Harris Wofford's successful Senate campaign of 1991, and it sounds the right note for the forgotten majority. Hardworking, law-abiding citizens should be provided with access to health care. They should not be left out in the cold just because they're unlucky enough to lose their jobs or to work for companies that don't provide affordable health insurance.

• People who work hard all their lives should have an adequate income after retirement. It is not fair to punish those who earned too little to save much for their retirement or who worked for employers that didn't provide pensions.

• Americans have a right to the best education their tax dollars can buy. In this rapidly changing economy the children of American workers must have access to quality education -- elementary, secondary, college, and beyond. The more quality education a person has, the better he or she will do economically.

• People willing to work hard should be able to get the training they want for the jobs they need. In the new economy people frequently have to or want to change jobs. They should not be penalized because they can't get access to training they would be perfectly willing and able to go through.

• In today's global economy everybody has a right to a decent wage and everybody has a right to speak out and organize. American workers shouldn't be competing with workers in other countries whose wages are artificially depressed by the absence of even minimal standards and democratic freedoms. That's not fair to workers abroad or at home.

• People who work hard should also be able to spend enough time with their families. Hard work shouldn't destroy family life and parents' relationships with their children. That's not the American Dream. We have to find ways to give workers more time to spend as parents, instead of the other way around.

• Parents who work outside the home should have access to affordable, quality child care. Nobody who wants or needs to work in today's society should have to sacrifice the welfare of his or her children to do so.

• We should make whatever investments are necessary to keep the economy growing. Solid economic growth benefits all Americans who are willing to work. It's a good use of tax money to spend whatever is necessary to maintain and safeguard this growth.

http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/is ... rogers.htm

Dangerousman
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 2292
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 12:28 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Dangerousman » Sun Jun 10, 2012 1:14 pm

gargantua wrote:now that he has a full term, and no longer has the "it's the uncertainty caused by all the recalls" excuse.


But if the Democrats control the state senate he's been handed the "Senate won't budge" excuse. Which, when you think about it is actually a more legitimate excuse.

It may be a sad statement, but as an independent and moderate, I'm actually relieved when opposite parties control each house of the legislature, or the executive branch. When one party controls it all, it opens the way for the more extreme left-wing or right-wing legislation to pass. When control is not dominated by either party, what passes is likely to be moderately agreeable to both sides because it will require compromise and consensus. Not perfect, but better than the alternative as long as the two dominant parties continue to have such disproportionately large extremist elements within them.

snoqueen
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 14044
Joined: Fri Feb 14, 2003 11:42 pm

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby snoqueen » Sun Jun 10, 2012 1:25 pm

OK, there's one good list of test items to follow for the next 2 1/2 years. I am pleased to note they are quality-of-life items, because our government exists, one way or the other, not as a self-serving entity but instead to serve the well-being of the people. How would you measure these quality-related items? What would you add or take out?

(I'm excerpting from the list posted above for convenience, not to snip out controversial parts. Please refer to the whole version.)

• Hardworking, law-abiding citizens should be provided with access to health care....They should not be left out in the cold just because they're unlucky enough to lose their jobs or to work for companies that don't provide affordable health insurance.


Percent covered by insurance?

• People who work hard all their lives should have an adequate income after retirement. It is not fair to punish those who earned too little to save much for their retirement or who worked for employers that didn't provide pensions.


Could we measure the percent of retirees with functional pension plans today, and in 2 1/2 years? Or the number of workers in jobs with pension plans? And the protections conferred upon existing pension plans, to keep them from being looted and the pensioners pushed out and onto public assistance? And the continued protection of programs to help lower-income elderly people for the same reason?

• ...In this rapidly changing economy the children of American workers must have access to quality education -- elementary, secondary, college, and beyond. The more quality education a person has, the better he or she will do economically.


Oh, the difficulty of measuring educational quality.... let's try at least ascertaining the percentage of students who complete various educational levels, for starters, and add in a measure of how many students go on to further education post-high school.

• People willing to work hard should be able to get the training they want for the jobs they need.... They should not be penalized because they can't get access to training they would be perfectly willing and able to go through.


Full availability of quality technical training, along with scholarships for those who need them? Support (tax credits?) for employers who pay for worker training, for apprenticeships, for periodic training updates in existing jobs?

• In today's global economy everybody has a right to a decent wage and everybody has a right to speak out and organize. American workers shouldn't be competing with workers in other countries whose wages are artificially depressed by the absence of even minimal standards and democratic freedoms. That's not fair to workers abroad or at home.


The first sentence speaks for itself, and we've rehashed the details to death already. Let's not get hung up, for now, on "right to work," but rather acknowledge the very real wage disparity between the US and, say, China, and think about ways to respond to it. One obvious way is to offer American (Wisconsin) goods and services to Chinese markets to build a reciprocal base of consumers in Asia. What else?

• People who work hard should also be able to spend enough time with their families. ...We have to find ways to give workers more time to spend as parents, instead of the other way around.

• ...Nobody who wants or needs to work in today's society should have to sacrifice the welfare of his or her children to do so.


This makes me think of support for child care services and earlier kindergarten programs. What else? A shorter work day has been tried in Europe, where it works well in some countries but apparently not in others, given the economic problems in Europe's south at this moment.

• We should make whatever investments are necessary to keep the economy growing. Solid economic growth benefits all Americans who are willing to work. It's a good use of tax money to spend whatever is necessary to maintain and safeguard this growth.


I'd like to see government investments in business evaluated in terms of the number of jobs created and the quality of those jobs.


I am also interested in the suggestion to compare/contrast Wisconsin's quality of life with other countries'. Any alternative to the race-to-the-bottom mentality is helpful, and we do live in both a global economy and a rapidly changing one.

And it won't hurt to keep an eye on Walker's performance versus his promises. Any elected official faces that scrutiny on an ongoing basis, not just at the end of his term.


When control is not dominated by either party, what passes is likely to be moderately agreeable to both sides because it will require compromise and consensus....


I too hope we can get our legislature back on track in terms not only of production, but process.


In reading the Atlantic article linked previously, don't skip sections 2 and 3 which are on different pages, and raise a whole different series of questions for another time.
Last edited by snoqueen on Sun Jun 10, 2012 1:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.

jonnygothispen
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 4952
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:53 pm
Contact:

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby jonnygothispen » Sun Jun 10, 2012 1:35 pm

gargantua wrote:
I thought about the extent to which the budget is balanced, but there are too many variables. A balanced budget sounds great, but if you get there by cutting aid to education by 90% for example, not so much.

Agree with earlier posters about the Jim Doyle effect. Remember the 2010 campaign.."Just like Jim Doyle, only worse!" . They could have trotted those out again and it probably still would have worked.
Geez, the budget isn't balanced. Wisconsin's GAAP debt increased because Walker borrowed $558 million.

The criticism of Doyle is interesting for two reasons, imo. Doyle inherited a $3.2 billion debt from Tommy Thompson, and reduced it to $2.7 billion by October 2010, which Walker has increased by $320 million now. Also, we had excellent job growth under Doyle's budget. It seems like the intended media perception is so deeply ingrained in people now that it would make a nice script for the sequel to Clockwork orange.

jonnygothispen
Forum God/Goddess
Posts: 4952
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:53 pm
Contact:

Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby jonnygothispen » Sun Jun 10, 2012 1:52 pm

"Why Walker Didn’t Win Wisconsin"
http://www.politiscoop.com/us-politics/ ... onsin.html

I agree with this^


Return to “Local Politics & Government”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests