Brenda Konkel's Gender Balance Resolution

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Marvell
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Postby Marvell » Thu May 17, 2007 1:53 pm

jimoo wrote:A) The statistical method it seems you learned is extremely simplistic, since it well could be random variation. I can flip a coin 28 times and get 28 heads in a row and the outcome is still valid. Since we don't know the variance here, it is hard to say.


That might be a reasonable equivalent if we were discussing a simple mechanical process like the flipping of a coin. But, obviously, we're not - we are discussing a complex and at least somewhat subjective non-mechanical process. Given that, describing this as equivalent to '28 heads in a row' seems...well...simplistic.


jimoo wrote:Placing the onus on a single public entity to counteract or "fix" percieved or real, natural or unnatural, gender biases in an entire profession is pure folly.


I don't really disagree with you on this. I'd just point out that this is an example of yet another situation where, in the absence of any serious engagement with the problem at the state or federal level, our local politicians are looking to solve it.

I don't know if I agree with your hyperbole that this is 'pure folly.' It's definitely sub-optimal, though.

Marvell
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Postby Marvell » Thu May 17, 2007 1:55 pm

harrissimo wrote:A few points:

1. It is refreshing to read jimoo who clearly has a higher level of understanding of statistics than a psych 101 class taken in 1984.

2. jimoo has clearly blown Marvell's arguments out of the water.

3. Marvell should quit now with this "statistics" is the answer to everything schick before he embarrasses himself any further.

4. I knew there was something fishy about Marvell's statistical analysis and now learning that it is based on one 1984 class in psych 101 my suspicions are confirmed.

Marvell it's not quite a good idea to spout off like you are some kind of expert when it is clear that you don't know what you are talking about.


Harris -

Just because you say it doesn't make it true.

-m-

harrissimo
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Postby harrissimo » Thu May 17, 2007 2:13 pm

Marvell wrote:Harris -

Just because you say it doesn't make it true.

-m-


I never said it did.

If the circumstances were that several female job applicants for city manager positions were complaining that they were rejected in favor of men who were less qualified then I would say that the 28/5 ratio was indication of gender descrimination and that the appropriate steps should be taken.

But that is not the case here. My understanding is that there used to be more female managers but over recent years female managers who have left their position seem to be replaced by men.

Why is that a problem? It's just the way things worked out. It is meaningless. Maybe in 3 or 4 years the situation will reverse itself because that is the way things may work out. It's not worthy getting ones pantys in a bunch about it.

Your statistics are nonsense, meaningless and a waste of time.

Chances are you will have your study. Fine. Go ahead. My bet is that the study will find nothing and draw no conclusion. Just a waste of time and resources.
Last edited by harrissimo on Thu May 17, 2007 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

magic moose
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Postby magic moose » Thu May 17, 2007 2:14 pm

Not to rain on anyone's parade, but if we expect that both males and females would apply with probability .5, a count of nine or more male applicants would occur by chance 12.2% of the time.

...BUT, the argument is valid that an external bias may discourage applications which in turn leads to fewer hires. We might say the hire rate is proportional to applications received, but fail to recognize both as a product of the same underlying bias.

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Postby jimoo » Thu May 17, 2007 2:24 pm

Marvell wrote:
jimoo wrote:A) The statistical method it seems you learned is extremely simplistic, since it well could be random variation. I can flip a coin 28 times and get 28 heads in a row and the outcome is still valid. Since we don't know the variance here, it is hard to say.


That might be a reasonable equivalent if we were discussing a simple mechanical process like the flipping of a coin. But, obviously, we're not - we are discussing a complex and at least somewhat subjective non-mechanical process. Given that, describing this as equivalent to '28 heads in a row' seems...well...simplistic.




Simplified to prove a point, but the statistical relevance is still the exact same. If there are two candidates, one male and one female, both finalists, that are both qualified and equal in every way for 28 different positions.

There is the possibility that 28 men would be chosen for those 28 positions, and it would not indicate that gender discrimination must have occurred.

magic moose
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Postby magic moose » Thu May 17, 2007 2:32 pm

...check that. 21.2% of the time.

And, yes, it's simplistic, but again, this is TDPF.

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Postby magic moose » Thu May 17, 2007 2:41 pm

jimoo wrote:There is the possibility that 28 men would be chosen for those 28 positions, and it would not indicate that gender discrimination must have occurred.


With the 0.00000037% probability here, I wouldn't bet the farm on non-discrimination, unless I was on the other side of that bet.

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Postby jjoyce » Thu May 17, 2007 2:45 pm

http://www.thedailypage.com/isthmus/art ... ticle=7121

[quote] Nelson defends his selection of Hoffman. “I’ve got plenty of engineers,â€Â

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Postby Beer Moon » Thu May 17, 2007 2:46 pm

Marvell wrote:I'd just point out that this is an example of yet another situation where, in the absence of any serious engagement with the problem at the state or federal level, our local politicians are looking to solve it.


I agree that this is what is being done. Aside from the federal legislation that makes it a crime punishable by fines and prison time for sex discrimination in employment and vocational training, education, the provision and sale of goods, facilities and services and premises, I would say you are mostly correct that not much is being done at a federal level.

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Postby jimoo » Thu May 17, 2007 2:50 pm

magic moose wrote:
jimoo wrote:There is the possibility that 28 men would be chosen for those 28 positions, and it would not indicate that gender discrimination must have occurred.


With the 0.00000037% probability here, I wouldn't bet the farm on non-discrimination, unless I was on the other side of that bet.




I wouldn't either, but I certainly wouldn't assume there is discrimination, especially since the likelihood that all other factors were equal is extremely small.

In this case, it is not even close to a 0 of 28 situation.

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Postby Chuck_Schick » Thu May 17, 2007 2:51 pm

magic moose wrote:
jimoo wrote:There is the possibility that 28 men would be chosen for those 28 positions, and it would not indicate that gender discrimination must have occurred.

With the 0.00000037% probability here, I wouldn't bet the farm on non-discrimination, unless I was on the other side of that bet.

No. Fucking. Shit.

One may as well argue there's no discrimination going on here because The Bible says 10,000 angles can dance on the head of a pin (or whatever the fuck the number is).

If computers were randomly selecting applicants from an pool of candidates that could be divided equally by gender, this sort of strict analytical approach to the problem might carry water. But that's not how the system works. There are people making these decisions, and people are fallible. That's the whole fucking point, Mr. Math.

Give me a fucking break, indeed. No wonder the world is so out of balance, given the number of addle-minded men representing my miserable gender on this thread.

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Postby bluethedog » Thu May 17, 2007 2:56 pm

Chuck_Schick wrote:...given the number of addle-minded men representing my miserable gender on this thread.

which is 1 more than you think.

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Postby jimoo » Thu May 17, 2007 2:58 pm

[quote="jjoyce"]http://www.thedailypage.com/isthmus/article.php?article=7121

[quote] Nelson defends his selection of Hoffman. “I’ve got plenty of engineers,â€Â
Last edited by jimoo on Thu May 17, 2007 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jimoo
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Postby jimoo » Thu May 17, 2007 3:02 pm

Chuck_Schick wrote:
magic moose wrote:
jimoo wrote:There is the possibility that 28 men would be chosen for those 28 positions, and it would not indicate that gender discrimination must have occurred.

With the 0.00000037% probability here, I wouldn't bet the farm on non-discrimination, unless I was on the other side of that bet.

No. Fucking. Shit.

One may as well argue there's no discrimination going on here because The Bible says 10,000 angles can dance on the head of a pin (or whatever the fuck the number is).

If computers were randomly selecting applicants from an pool of candidates that could be divided equally by gender, this sort of strict analytical approach to the problem might carry water. But that's not how the system works. There are people making these decisions, and people are fallible. That's the whole fucking point, Mr. Math.

Give me a fucking break, indeed. No wonder the world is so out of balance, given the number of addle-minded men representing my miserable gender on this thread.



Hey there, no one was touting the numbers as proof that there isn't discrimination. What I was showing is that the numbers don't prove there IS discrimination. Which people were arguing.

Those are VERY different statements.

Chuck_Schick
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Postby Chuck_Schick » Thu May 17, 2007 3:06 pm

bluethedog wrote:
Chuck_Schick wrote:...given the number of addle-minded men representing my miserable gender on this thread.

which is 1 more than you think.

What, you're conjoined twins?


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